Publications

The MIT Sloan faculty has transformed the literature of management. Many are the authors of textbooks adopted in courses worldwide, but they are also producing works, like Lester Thurow's seminal book Building Wealth, that attract large, enthusiastic audiences from the wider reading public.

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RECENT PUBLICATIONS

Semantic Distances for Technology Landscape Visualization (Working paper)
Wei Lee Woon, Stuart Madnick

This paper presents a novel approach to the visualization of research domains in science and technology. The proposed methodology is based on the use of bibliometrics; i.e., analysis is conducted using information regarding trends and patterns of publication rather than the actual content. In particular, we explore the use of term co-occurrence frequencies as an indicator of semantic closeness between pairs of terms. To demonstrate the utility of this approach, a number of visualizations are generated for a collection of renewable energy related keywords. As these keywords are regarded as manifestations of the associated research topics, we contend that the proposed visualizations can be interpreted as representations of the underlying technology landscape. More >>

Capital Controls and Macroprudential Measures: What Are They Good For? (Working paper)
Kristin J. Forbes, Marcel Fratzscher, Roland Straub

Are capital controls and macroprudential measures successful in achieving their objectives? Assessing their effectiveness is complicated by selection bias and endogeneity; countries which change their capital-flow management measures (CFMs) often share specific characteristics and are responding to changes in variables that the CFMs are intended to influence. This paper addresses these challenges by using a propensity-score matching methodology. We also create a new database with detailed information on weekly changes in controls on capital inflows, capital outflows, and macroprudential measures from 2009 to 2011 for 60 countries. Results show that macroprudential measures can significantly reduce some measures of financial fragility. Most CFMs do not significantly affect other key targets, however, such as exchange rates, capital flows, interest-rate differentials, inflation, equity indices, and different volatilities. One exception is that removing controls on capital outflows may reduce real exchange rate appreciation. Therefore, certain CFMs can be effective in accomplishing specific goals -- but most popular measures are not "good for" accomplishing their stated aims. More >>

The Components of Private Equity Performance: Implications for Portfolio Choice (Working paper)
William B. Kinlaw, Mark Kritzman, Jason Mao

We use a proprietary database of private equity returns to measure the excess return of private equity over public equity and to partition it into two components: an asset class alpha and compensation for illiquidity. Our evidence suggests that private equity managers, as a group, generate alpha by anticipating the relative performance of economic sectors. If we assume that manager-specific alpha is fully diluted across a broad universe of private equity managers, we can interpret the balance of excess return as a premium for illiquidity. This result suggests that investors can capture the asset class alpha of private equity by using liquid assets such as ETFs to match the sector weights of private equity investors. This decomposition of private equity performance has important implications for portfolio choice, which we explore in this paper. More >>

Ideas for the Future of the IS Field (Working paper)
Gordon B. Davis, Paul Gray, Stuart Madnick, Jay F. Nunamaker Jr., Ralph Sprague, Andrew B. Whinston

Information Systems as a field of intellectual inquiry is now approximately 50 years old. It has many achievements and extensive research to its credit and has established a large group of researchers and experts worldwide. The field has changed and changed and changed again over the last half century. The question addressed in this inaugural issue paper is: Where does IS go from here? This paper presents the views of six of the 'fathers of the field' about its directions in the years ahead. Each coauthor presents two ideas about the future. The topics covered includes continuing support of the work of organizations, emerging technologies, new ways of communicating, expanding the ways IS performs research, expanding its vision both of what IS is and of its impact, its role as a resource, its model of the IS professional and its graduates, and its staying on top of new technologies and new areas of inquiry. More >>

Productivity Effects of Information Diffusion in Networks (Working paper)
Sinan Aral, Erik Brynjolfsson, Marshall Van Alstyne

We examine the drivers of diffusion of information through organizations and the effects on performance. In particular, we ask: What predicts the likelihood of an individual becoming aware of a strategic piece of information, or becoming aware of it sooner? Do different types of information exhibit different diffusion patterns, and do different characteristics of social structure, relationships and individuals in turn affect access to different kinds of information? Does better access to information predict an individual's ability to complete projects or generate revenue? More >>

Coordination of Supply Chain Networks and the Emergence of Mini-Maestros (Working paper)
Pilar Ester Arroyo-Lopez

Companies recognize international sourcing as a business practice useful to reduce product prices, deal with supply shortages and identify new competitive suppliers. Effective international sourcing implies the integration and coordination of materials, processes, information flows and multiple producers at each buying location. Many companies do not have the capabilities or the willingness to develop and manage such sourcing networks; therefore, other entities have assumed these responsibilities. These coordinators are in charge of the integration of many suppliers to develop full-package production, serve as liaisons between suppliers' capabilities and market demands, and provide the technical and financial support to sustain the sourcing network. The review of the industrial clustering and global supply chain literature allowed the identification of such coordinators in Mexico. The emergence and profile of these coordinators is associated with corporate strategies of multinational firms, the efforts of industrial groups, and the governmental policies for the development of dynamic industrial regions. This paper analyzes the characteristics of four coordination models identified in the Mexican context, focusing on their contribution to the participation and upgrading of national suppliers. The profile of the coordinator firm, the type of relations that this firm sustains with producers and the support offered to suppliers is also discussed. A particular emphasis is given to the fourth model where a third party, a knowledge and service company, assumes the coordinator role. The interest on this model is due to its novelty, the flexibility of the sourcing network, and the potential impact on regional development that could result from the intervention of a neutral third party as coordinator of the activities of multiple local and specialized suppliers. More >>

Information and Transformation at Swiss Re: Maximizing Economic Value (Working paper)
Cynthia Beath and Jeanne W. Ross

In 2007 Swiss Re was striving to maximize economic value, a metric that would allow the company to assess its performance over time despite the volatility of the reinsurance industry. This case describes Swiss Re's journey from a regional to a global firm and highlights the role of information technology in enabling the standardization and sharing of the firm's global processes and data. More >>

Chevron: Outsourcing Commodity Processes in a Commodity Business (Working paper)
Cynthia M. Beath, Jeanne W. Ross

Faced with a large number of impending retirements, Chevron intended to downsize by outsourcing commodity services. In 2004 management recognized that taking advantage of the growing number of services available on the market required new competencies. This case describes how Chevron learned to identify appropriate outsourcing opportunities and how the IT unit--and managers of IT-enabled processes--incrementally built skills around architecture, integration, and vendor management to enable the company to benefit from outsourcing opportunities More >>

The Longer Tail: The Changing Shape of Amazon's Sales Distribution Curve (Working paper)
Erik Brynjolfsson, et. al.

Internet consumers derive significant surplus from increased product variety, and in particular, the "Long Tail" of niche products that can be found on the Internet at retailers like Amazon.com. The authors' analyses suggest that by 2008, niche books account for 36.7 percent of Amazon's sales and the consumer surplus generated by niche books has increased at least five fold from 2000 to 2008. They argue that this increase is consistent with the presence of "secondary" supply-and-demand-side effects driving the growth of the Long Tail online. More >>

Innovation Incentives for Information Goods (Working paper)
Erik Brynjolfsson, et. al.

Innovations can often be targeted to be more valuable for some consumers than others. This is especially true for digital information goods. We show that the traditional price system not only results in significant deadweight loss, but also provides incorrect incentives to the creators of these innovations. In contrast, we propose and analyze a profit-maximizing mechanism for bundles of digital goods which is more efficient and more accurately provides innovation incentives for information goods. More >>

Dueling Stakeholders and Dual-Hatted Systems Engineers: Engineering Challenges, Capabilities and Skills in Government Infrastructure Technology Projects (Working paper)
John Carroll, et al.

Engineering projects that support government enterprises face substantial challenges due to demands from diverse stakeholders and rapidly-changing technologies. In this paper, we present findings from analysis of five case studies of systems engineering projects for large government enterprises. We focus on what can be learned from systems engineers, their essential role, and their engineering practices. More >>

The objective value of subjective value: A multiround negotiation study (Working paper)
Jared R. Curhan, Hillary Anger Elfenbein, Noah Eisenkraft

A 2-round negotiation study provided evidence that positive feelings resulting from one negotiation can be economically rewarding in a second negotiation. More >>

Cooperation Without Coordination: Influence Dynamics and the Emergence of Synchrony in Inter-Organizational Networks (Working paper)
Jason P. Davis

This paper explores the emergence of synchrony in cooperative inter-organizational networks. While some research suggests that synchronizing organizational actions like product releases is a form of collective behavior that generates advantages for organizations, most existing network theory focuses on dyads and not the larger organizational groups where networked cooperation is relevant. More >>

Missing Links: Referrer Behavior and Job Segregation (Working paper)
Roberto M. Fernandez, et. al.

How does referral recruitment contribute to job segregation, and what can organizations do about it? Current theory on network effects in the labor market emphasizes the job-seeker perspective, focusing on the segregated nature of job-seekers' information and contact networks, and leaves little role for organizational influence. But employee referrals are necessarily initiated from within a firm by referrers. We argue that referrer behavior is the missing link that can help organizations manage the segregating effects of referring. More >>

Tipping Points: Referral Homophily and Job Segregation (Working paper)
Roberto M. Fernandez, et. al.

How does referral recruitment contribute to job segregation? Current theory emphasizes the segregated nature of job-seekers' information and contact networks. The job-seeker perspective characterizing most research on network effects in the labor market leaves little role for organizational influence. But referrals are necessarily initiated within a firm by referrers. More >>

From Metaphors to Mechanisms: Gender Sorting In(to) an Organizational Hierarchy (Working paper)
Roberto M. Fernandez, et. al.

Numerous studies have examined patterns of gender inequality in organizational advancement, with some showing results indicative of "glass ceilings," where gender disparities are strong at the upper reaches of the organization, while others suggest "sticky floors," where the gender differences in advancement occur at the lower levels of the organization. More >>

Creating Connections For the Disadvantaged: Networks and Labor Market Intermediaries at the Hiring Interface (Working paper)
Roberto M. Fernandez

Scholars interested in race inequality have been particularly attracted to network accounts of the stratifying effects of social networks in the labor market. A recurring theme in policy-oriented research on poverty is that institutional connections can be engineered to create connections between job seekers and employers in ways that parallel social network processes. More >>

Watch What I Do, Not What I Say: The Unintended Consequences of the Homeland Investment Act (Working paper)
Kristin J. Forbes, et al.

This paper analyzes the impact on firm behavior of the Homeland Investment Act of 2004, which provided a one-time tax holiday for the repatriation of foreign earnings by U.S. multinationals. The analysis controls for endogeneity and omitted variable bias by using instruments that identify the firms likely to receive the largest tax benefits from the holiday. More >>

Why Do Foreigners Invest in the United States? (Working paper)
Kristin J. Forbes

Why are foreigners willing to invest almost $2 trillion per year in the United States? The answer affects if the existing pattern of global imbalances can persist and if the United States can continue to finance its current account deficit without a major change in asset prices and returns. More >>

To Wave Or Not To Wave? Order Release Policies for Warehouses with an Automated Sorter (Working paper)
Jeremie Gallien and Theophane Weber

Wave-based release policies are prevalent in warehouses with an automated sorter, and take different forms depending on how much waves overlap and whether the sorter is split for operating purposes. Waveless release is emerging as an alternative policy adopted by an increasing number of firms. While that new policy presents several advantages relative to waves, it also involves the possibility of gridlock at the sorter. More >>

Implementing Supply Routing Optimization in a Make-to-Order Manufacturing Network (Working paper)
Jeremie Gallien, John Foreman, et al.

Dell's supply chain for desktops involves Asian vendors shipping components by sea to several U.S. plants. While suppliers are responsible for shipping enough inventory, Dell can re-route and expedite their shipments while in transit and also transfer on-hand inventory in order to balance supply across sites. This paper describes the development, implementation and impact of the process and optimization-based control system now used by Dell to address this supply routing challenge for its US-bound monitors. This new methodology is estimated to have reduced Dell's inventory re-positioning costs for monitors by about 60 percent. More >>

Order Release Control for an Online Retailing Warehouse (Working paper)
Jeremie Gallien and Theophane Weber

Working in collaboration with a large online retailer, our goal is to develop an operational solution to the problem of order release control for its highest volume and most automated warehouse pick-to-ship process. This problem consists of dynamically varying the rate at which new picking orders are released into this process in order to achieve a high throughput while mitigating the risk of congestion-induced collapse (gridlock). We describe a queueing model of this complex process with validated predictive accuracy against actual historical data, and develop a numerical approximate solution method for an associated constrained dynamic program, which we implemented to compute our proposed policy. Simulation experiments suggest that an implementation of our computed policy along with an increase in staffed packers by 25 percent could increase process throughput by 10 percent. They also shed light on why our proposed policy outperforms other simple release policies such as constant release rate and CONWIPin this setting, in terms of both steady-state throughput and robustness to transient disruptions. More >>

Enhancing Analogical Reasoning and Performance in Strategic Decision Making (Working paper)
M. Shayne Gary, et al.

Strategy scholars have recently started theorizing about the impact of and the extent to which managers reason by analogies drawn either from their own past experience or from vicarious knowledge about seemingly similar situations. More >>

Inside Organizations: Pricing, Politics, and Path Dependence (Working paper)
Robert Gibbons

When economists have considered organizations, much attention has focused on the boundary of the firm, rather than its internal structures and processes. In contrast, this essay sketches three approaches to the economic theory of internal organization- one substantially developed, another rapidly emerging, and a third on the horizon. More >>

Direct Energy: Evolving a New Role for IT (Working paper)
Cyrus F. Gibson

In 2005 top management of Direct Energy, a rapidly growing energy utility, distribution and trading company, recruited a new CIO to be a member of the executive team. The case describes three years of significant change in the role of IT and provides lessons in mutual IT-business learning and relationship building for businesses in transition to greater dependency on IT as a competitive resource. Of particular relevance is the approach taken by top management in setting priorities and introducing change, including new IT governance mechanisms and assistance to businesses to gain credibility and influence. More >>

Integration and Information: Markets and Hierarchies Revisited (Working paper)
Robert Gibbons, Richard Holden, and Michael Powell

We analyze a rational-expectations model of price formation in an intermediate-good market under uncertainty. There is a continuum of dyads, each consisting of an upstream party and downstream party. Both parties can make specific investments at private cost, and there is a machine that either party can own. As in property rights models, different ownership structures create different incentives for the parties' investments. More >>

Rational-Expectations Equilibrium in Intermediate Good Markets (Working paper)
Robert Gibbons, Richard Holden and Michael Powell

We analyze a rational-expectations model of information acquisition and price formation in an intermediate-good market: prices and net supply are non-negative, there are no noise traders, and the intermediate good has multiple potential uses. Several of our results differ from the classic Grossman-Stiglitz approach. For example, the price mechanism is more informative at high and low prices and potentially uninformative at middle prices. More >>

Firms In Markets Under Uncertainty (Working paper)
Robert Gibbons, Richard T. Holden and Michael Powell

We analyze a rational-expectations model of price formation in an intermediate- good market under uncertainty. There is a continuum of dyads, each consisting of an upstream party and a downstream party. More >>

System Dynamics Modeling of Humanitarian Relief Operations (Working paper)
Paulo Goncalves

Humanitarian organizations face increased challenges scaling capacity, improving operational efficiency, reducing staff turnover, improving institutional learning, satisfying increasingly demanding donors, and operating in increasingly challenging environments, with poor or inexistent infrastructure, high demand uncertainty and little time to prepare and respond. To address such challenges, managers in humanitarian organizations must understand the complexity that characterizes humanitarian relief efforts to learn how to design and manage complex relief operations. More >>

Dealer Hoarding, Sales Push and Seed Returns: Characterizing the Interdependency between Dealer Incentives and Salesforce Management (Working paper)
Paulo Goncalves

Hybrid seed suppliers experience excessive and costly rates of seed returns from dealers, who order in advance of grower demand realization and may return unsold seeds at the end of the season. Sales representatives know they must carefully gather information on grower demand for seed types and quantities to improve their demand forecast and better position their seeds. More >>

A Fire Sale without Fire: An Explanation of Labor-Intensive FDI in China (Working paper)
Yasheng Huang, et al.

Using a large firm-level panel dataset from the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, we examine the effect of financial distortions on FDI inflows in China's labor-intensive industries. Following Whited and Wu (2006), we estimate the investment Euler equation and construct a financing constraint index for each firm. We find that among domestic firms, the financing constraint index is highest for private firms and lowest for state-owned firms. More >>

Is Entrepreneurship Missing in Shanghai? (Working paper)
Yasheng Huang, Yi Qian

Using a unique census dataset on all industrial firms (with more than 5 million yuan in sales), we document a phenomenon of missing entrepreneurship in Shanghai. Entrepreneurship is defined as private, new entrants in our paper. Specifically, in terms of business density, the size of employment and a host of other measures, the relative ranking of Shanghai was always near the bottom in the country. All these empirical findings took place against a backdrop of the presumably huge locational advantages of Shanghai -- the substantial human capital, rapid GDP growth, and a long and stellar -- but pre-communist -- history of entrepreneurship. We propose a hypothesis that Shanghai adopted a particularly rigorous version of industrial policy model of economic development and this industrial policy proclivity may have led to the atrophy of entrepreneurship in Shanghai. More >>

Does Ethnicity Pay? Evidence from Overseas Chinese FDI in China (Working paper)
Yasheng Huang, Li Jin, Yi Qian

Using a comprehensive sample of all FDI firms in China, we explore the question whether ethnicity enhances operating performance. While there has been a sizable theoretical literature studying ethnicity and foreign investments, the prediction of the impact of ethnicity on firm profitability is far from clear. More >>

Can We Exploit Collective Intelligence for Collaborative Deliberation? The Case of the Climate Change Collaboratorium (Working paper)
Luca Iandoli, Mark Klein, Giuseppe Zollo

Current open-source/peer-production technologies, such as forums, wikis and blogs, have enabled an unprecedented explosion of global knowledge sharing, but appear to be less successful at enabling collaborative deliberation (i.e. the systematic enumeration, analysis, and selection of solution alternatives) around the complex and controversial challenges, such as climate change, now facing humankind. In this paper, we present a new kind of collaboration platform, based on argumentation theory, which is aimed at addressing this weakness. We present the rationale for its design as well as preliminary results obtained from a first field test with a moderate-sized (200 member) user community. More >>

Do Short Sellers Front-Run Insider Sales? (Working paper)
Mozaffar Khan, Hai Lu

We find evidence of significant increases in short sales immediately prior to large insider sales, consistent with information leakage and front-running. We examine a number of alternative explanations that the increase in short sales is driven by public information about the firm or about the impending insider sale, but the evidence is inconsistent with these explanations. The result has implications for the enforcement of insider information regulations, and for timely disclosure of short sales information by stock exchanges. More >>

What Can We Conclude From Common Tests of Accrual Mispricing? (Working paper)
Mozaffar Khan

Mispricing and risk have both been suggested as explanations for the cross-sectional relation between stock returns and firm characteristics such as accruals. As emphasized by Ferson and Harvey (1998) and Berk, Green and Naik (1999), it is difficult to evaluate these competing explanations without explicitly modelling the relation between risk and firm characteristics, if risk is not independent of firm characteristics. Drawing on theory and empirical evidence, this paper models systematic risk as a function of accruals, and accruals as mean-reverting. More >>

Handling Resource Oscillations Through Selective Misinformation (Working paper)
Mark Klein, Richard Metzler, Yaneer Bar-Yam

When resource consumers select among competing providers based on delayed information, inefficient oscillations in resource utilization can emerge. This paper describes an approach, based on selective stochastic resource request rejection, for dealing with this emergent dysfunction. More >>

Supporting Collaborative Deliberation Using a Large-Scale Argumentation System: The MIT Collaboratorium (Working paper)
Mark Klein, Luca Iandoli

In this paper, we present a new kind of collaboration platform, based on the large-scale application of argumentation theory, aimed at addressing this weakness. We present its rationale and design, as well as preliminary results obtained from a field test with a moderate-sized (220 member) user community. More >>

The MIT Collaboratorium: Enabling Effective Large-Scale Deliberation for Complex Problems (Working paper)
Mark Klein

While current online discussion tools such as email, chat, wikis, and web forums have been enormously successful at enabling unprecedented global knowledge sharing, they face significant limitations from the perspective of enabling effective large-scale deliberation around complex and controversial issues such as climate change. This paper describes the design and rationale of a system, called the Collaboratorium, which was developed to transcend these limitations by supporting large-scale on-line argumentation. More >>

Social Learning in Social Networks (Working paper)
PJ Lamberson

This paper analyzes a model of social learning in a social network. Agents decide whether or not to adopt a new technology with unknown payoffs based on their prior beliefs and the experiences of their neighbors in the network. More >>

Linking Network Structure and Diffusion Through Stochastic Dominance (Working paper)
P.J. Lamberson

Recent research identifies stochastic dominance as critical for understanding the relationship between network structure and diffusion. More >>

Secrets of the Academy: The Drivers of University Endowment Success (Working paper)
Josh Lerner, Antoinette Schoar, and Jialan Wang

In this paper, we have sought to understand what has been the performance of university endowments, and what drives the observed pattern of performance. More >>

Provably Near-Optimal LP-Based Policies for Revenue Management in Systems with Reusable Resources (Working paper)
Retsef Levi and Ana Radovanovic

We use an extremely simple linear program (LP) that provides an upper bound on the best achievable expected long-run revenue rate. The optimal solution of the LP is used to devise a conceptually simple control policy that we call the class selection policy (CSP). More >>

Measuring Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors (Working paper)
Andrew Lo, et al.

A significant contributing factor to the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 was the apparent interconnectedness among hedge funds, banks, brokers, and insurance companies, which amplified shocks into systemic events. More >>

Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect (Working paper)
Andrew Lo, Robert C. Merton, Amir Khandani.

The confluence of three trends in the U.S. residential housing market-rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities-led to vastly increased systemic risk in the financial system. More >>

The Promise and Perils of Private Voluntary Regulation: Labor Standards and Work Organization in Two Mexican Garment Factories (Working paper)
Richard M. Locke, et al.

What role can private voluntary regulation play in improving labor standards and working conditions in global supply chain factories? How does this system relate to and interact with other systems of labor regulation and work organization? More >>

Using Semantic Web Tools for Context Interchange (Working paper)
Mihai Lupu, Stuart E. Madnick

The COntext INterchange Strategy (COIN) is an approach to solving the problem of interoperability of semantically heterogeneous data sources through context mediation. The existing implementation of COIN uses its own notation and syntax for representing ontologies. More recently, the OWL Web Ontology Language is becoming established as the W3C recommended ontology language. A bridge is needed between these two areas and an explanation on how each of the two approaches can learn from each other. We propose the use of the COIN strategy to solve context disparity and ontology interoperability problems in the emerging Semantic Web both at the ontology level and at the data level. In this work we showcase how the problems that arise from context-dependant representation of facts can be mitigated by Semantic Web techniques, as tools of the conceptual framework developed over 15 years of COIN research. More >>

Preventing Accidents and Building a Culture of Safety: Insights from a Simulation Model (Working paper)
John Lyneis, Stuart Madnick

Research has approached the topic of safety in organizations from a number of different perspectives. On the one hand, psychological research on safety climate gives evidence for a range of organizational factors that predict safety across organizations. On the other hand, organizational learning theorists view safety as a dynamic problem in which organizations must learn from mistakes. Here, we synthesize these two streams of research. More >>

The Alignment of Partnering Strategy, Governance and Management in Research and Development Projects: The Role of Contract Choice (Working paper)
Alan MacCormack, et. al.

Firms increasingly look outside their organizational boundaries to identify partners that can improve the effectiveness of R and D projects. The strategy for using partners, however, varies significantly across projects. In some, partners are used primarily to lower development costs and/or supplement development capacity; in others they are used to improve the quality of the final product. How should these variations in partnering strategy impact the governance and management choices made within projects? More >>

Experiences and Challenges with Using Cert Data to Analyze International Cyber Security (Working paper)
Stuart Madnick, et al.

With the increasing interconnection of computer networks and sophistication of cyber attacks, it is important to understand the dynamics of such situations, especially in regards to cyber international relations. More >>

Comparison of Generality Based Algorithm Variants for Automatic Taxonomy Generation (Working paper)
Stuart Madnick, et al.

We compare a family of algorithms for the automatic generation of taxonomies by adapting the Heymannalgorithm in various ways. More >>

A Framework for Technology Forecasting and Visualization (Working paper)
Stuart Madnick, et al.

This paper presents a novel framework for supporting the development of well-informed research policies and plans. The proposed methodology is based on the use of bibliometrics; i.e., analysis is conducted using information regarding trends and patterns of publication. Information thus obtained is analyzed to predict probable future developments in the technological fields being studied. While using bibliometric techniques to study science and technology is not a new idea, the proposed approach extends previous studies in a number of important ways. More >>

Approach and Preliminary Results for Early Growth Technology Analysis (Working paper)
Stuart Madnick, et al.

Even experts cannot be fully aware of all the promising developments in broad and complex fields of technology, such as renewable energy. Fortunately, there exist many diverse sources of information that report new technological developments, such as journal publications, news stories, and blogs. More >>

Reconciling Semantic Heterogeneity in Web Services Composition (Working paper)
Stuart Madnick, Hongwei Zhu, et al.

Service Oriented Computing (SOC) is a popular computing paradigm for the development of distributed Web applications. Service composition, a key element of SOC, is severely hampered by various types of semantic heterogeneity among the services. More >>

Reconciling Equational Heterogeneity within a Data Federation (Working paper)
Stuart Madnick, Michael Siegel, Benjamin Grosof, et al.

Mappings in most federated databases are conceptualized and implemented as black-box transformations between source schemas and a federated schema. More >>

Measuring Innovation Using Bibliometric Techniques: The Case of Solar Photovoltaic Industry (Working paper)
Stuart Madnick, et al.

In this paper, we use feature extraction and data analysis techniques for the elucidation of patterns and trends in technological innovation. In studying innovation, we focus on the role of public research institutions (research universities and national laboratories) in the development of new industries. More >>

Bibliometric Analysis of Distributed Generation (Working paper)
Stuart Madnick, et al.

This paper describes the application of data mining techniques for eludicating patterns and trends in technological innovation. Specifically, we focus on the use of bibliometric methods, viz techniques which focus on trends in the publication of text documents rather than the content of these documents. More >>

Framework for the Analysis of the Adaptability, Extensibility, and Scalability of Semantic Information Integration and the Context Mediation Approach (Working paper)
Stuart Madnick, et al.

Technological advances such as Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) have increased the feasibility and importance of effectively integrating information from an ever widening number of systems within and across enterprises. A key difficulty of achieving this goal comes from the pervasive heterogeneity in all levels of information systems. More >>

Reconciling Protocol Mismatches of Web Services by Using Mediators (Working paper)
Stuart Madnick, et al.

In the era of Global Services, Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) has been gaining momentum for building Web-based information systems. Service composition is one of the key objectives for adopting SOA. More >>

Comparison of Approaches for Gathering Data from the Web for Technology Trend Analysis (Working paper)
Stuart Madnick, et al.

We are investigating trend extrapolation using historical data from academic publications to forecast future technology directions. More >>

Latent Semantic Analysis Applied to Tech Mining (Working paper)
Stuart Madnick, et al.

This paper presents an approach to bibliometric analysis in the context of technology mining. Bibliometric analysis refers to the use of publication database statistics, e.g., hit counts relevant to a topic of interest. More >>

Harnessing Crowds: Mapping the Genome of Collective Intelligence (Working paper)
Thomas W. Malone, et al.

Google. Wikipedia. Threadless. All are well-known examples of large, loosely organized groups of people working together electronically in surprisingly effective ways. More >>

Construction by Replacement: A New Approach to Simulation Modeling (Working paper)
Thomas W. Malone, Paulo Goncalves, et al.

Simulation modeling can be valuable in many areas of management science, but is often costly, time-consuming and difficult to do. This paper describes a new approach to simulation that has the potential to be much cheaper, faster and easier to use in many situations. More >>

Understanding Complexity: Dynamic Analysis of Combat Vehicle Accidents (Working paper)
Maj. Nathan A. Minami, Stuart E. Madnick

Dozens of U.S. soldiers are killed each year as a result of both combat and motor vehicle accidents. The objective of this study is to look beyond the events and symptoms of accidents which normally indicate human error, and instead study the complex and poorly understood upper-level organizational processes and problems that may constitute the actual root causes of accidents - this is particularly challenging because the causes often involve nonlinear dynamic phenomena and have behaviors that are counter-intuitive to normal human thinking, these are often called "wicked" problems. After reviewing the available literature, a System Dynamics model was created to provide an analytical model of this multifaceted system that allows for extensive simulation. The results of these simulations suggest that high-level decisions that balance mission rate and operations tempo with troop availability, careful management of the work-rest cycle for deployed troops, and improvement of the processes for evaluating the lessons learned from accidents, will lead to a reduction in Army combat and motor vehicle accidents. More >>

Extending Construal Level Theory to Distributed Teams: Perception and Evaluation of Distant Others (Working paper)
Mark Mortensen, et al.

Building on prior research on distributed teams that has identified physical and temporal distance as impediments to collaboration and relationship development, this paper explores how and why we treat geographically distant others differently from those who are proximal. More >>

Multiple Team Membership: A Theoretical Model of Its Effects on Productivity and Learning for Individuals, Teams, and Organizations (Working paper)
Mark Mortensen, et al.

While organizations strive to manage the time and attention of workers effectively, the practice of asking workers to contribute to multiple teams simultaneously can result in the opposite. More >>

Firsthand Experience and the Subsequent Role of Reflected Knowledge in Cultivating Trust in Global Collaboration (Working paper)
Mark Mortensen, et al.

While scholars contend that firsthand experience -- time spent onsite observing the people, places, and norms of a distant locale -- is crucial in globally distributed collaboration, how such experience actually affects interpersonal dynamics is poorly understood. More >>

Understanding Virtual Team Performance: A Synthesis of Research on the Effects of Team Design, Processes, and States (Working paper)
Mark Mortensen, et al.

Virtual teams are essential to the functioning of numerous organizations. They have been the subjects of much research, resulting in a growing body of literature on the topic. Nevertheless, our understanding of the performance impacts of different aspects of virtual teams (e.g., the people, task, and technology), and the processes through which these come about, remains relatively limited. More >>

Fuzzy Teams: Why do teams disagree on their membership, and what does it mean? (Working paper)
Mark Mortensen

Organizations increasingly rely on teams as fundamental building blocks -- a focus mirrored by a long legacy of research on teams. Due to the complexity of team dynamics and processes within teams and small groups, to date such research has yielded an ambiguous or equivocal set of results regarding the determinants of team performance. More >>

Contracting Over the Disclosure of Scientific Knowledge: Intellectual Property Protection and Academic Publication (Working paper)
Fiona Murray, et. al.

The authors explore the conflicting incentives facing researchers and their funders: scientists have incentives to disclose discoveries through scientific publication while firms have incentives to protect their ideas through patenting or secrecy. They focus on the strategic interaction between researchers and firms bargaining over whether (and how) knowledge will be disclosed. More >>

Friends and Enemies Within: The Roles of Subgroups, Imbalance, and Isolates in Geographically Dispersed Teams (Working paper)
Michael Boyer O'Leary, Mark Mortensen

In this study, we explore the impact of GDT configuration (i.e., the relative number of team members at different sites, independent of the characteristics of those members or the spatial and temporal distances among them) on GDT dynamics. More >>

The Economic and Policy Consequences of Catastrophes (Working paper)
Robert S. Pindyck and Neng Wang

What is the likelihood that the U.S. will experience a devastating catastrophic event over the next few decades -- something that would substantially reduce the capital stock, GDP and wealth? More >>

Uncertain Outcomes and Climate Change Policy (Working paper)
Robert S. Pindyck

Focusing on tail effects, I incorporate distributions for temperature change and its economic impact in an analysis of climate change policy. More >>

Sunk Costs and Risk-Based Barriers to Entry (Working paper)
Robert Pindyck

In merger analysis and other antitrust settings, risk is often cited as a potential barrier to entry. But there is little consensus as to the kinds of risk that matter -- systematic versus non-systematic and industry-wide versus firm-specific -- and the mechanisms through which they affect entry. More >>

Enabling Global Price Comparison through Semantic Integration of Web Data (Working paper)
Nicolas Prat, Stuart E. Madnick

"Sell Globally" and "Shop Globally" have been seen as a potential benefit of web-enabled electronic business. One important step toward realizing this benefit is to know how things are selling in various parts of the world. A global price comparison service would address this need. But there have not been many such services. In this paper, we use a case study of global price dispersion to illustrate the need and the value of a global price comparison service. Then we identify and discuss several technology challenges, including semantic heterogeneity, in providing a global price comparison service. We propose a mediation architecture to address the semantic heterogeneity problem, and demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed architecture by implementing a prototype that enables global price comparison using data from web sources in several countries. More >>

Evaluating and Aggregating Data Believability across Quality Sub-Dimensions and Data Lineage (Working paper)
Nicolas Prat, Stuart E. Madnick

Data quality is crucial for operational efficiency and sound decision making. This paper focuses on believability, a major aspect of data quality. The issue of believability is particularly relevant in the context of Web 2.0, where mashups facilitate the combination of data from different sources. Our approach for assessing data believability is based on provenance and lineage, i.e. the origin and subsequent processing history of data. We present the main concepts of our model for representing and storing data provenance, and an ontology of the sub-dimensions of data believability. We then use aggregation operators to compute believability across the sub-dimensions of data believability and the provenance of data. We illustrate our approach with a scenario based on Internet data. Our contribution lies in three main design artifacts (1) the provenance model (2) the ontology of believability subdimensions and (3) the method for computing and aggregating data believability. To our knowledge, this is the first work to operationalize provenance-based assessment of data believability. More >>

Bringing Entrepreneurial Ideas to Life (Working paper)
Ed Roberts, et al.

Organizational design in the context of new venture development is particularly challenging due to initially severe resource constraints. Deepening our understanding of differential productivity in the startup resource assembly process is therefore important. More >>

Entrepreneurial Impact: The Role of MIT (Working paper)
Edward Roberts and Charles E. Eesley

Research- and technology-intensive universities, especially via their entrepreneurial spinoffs, have a dramatic impact on the economies of the United States and its fifty states. A new report on just one such university, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, indicates conservatively that, if the active companies founded by MIT graduates formed an independent nation, their revenues would make that nation at least the seventeenth-largest economy in the world. More >>

Agility and Risk Management at Pacific Life: Optimizing Business Unit Autonomy (Working paper)
Jeanne W. Ross and Cynthia Beath

Pacific Life is a diversified financial services company with a history of autonomous business units. Pacific Life had five independent divisions, including Life Insurance, Annuities and Mutual Funds, and Investments. These divisions served different customers and responded to different regulatory and market requirements. This case describes how the company governs shared IT services and enterprise risk management to limit its risk exposure while reaping the benefits of decentralization. More >>

Building Business Agility at Southwest Airlines (Working paper)
Jeanne W. Ross, Cynthia M. Beath

Southwest Airlines has grown from upstart to the largest U.S. airline in terms of number of passengers flown while recording 34 consecutive years of profitability. Through most of those 34 years, Southwest management emphasized high touch rather than automation as critical to business success. Over time, however, Southwest employees introduced technology-based innovations to support key processes, including the industry's first paperless ticketing system and early entry into web-based applications. By 2002 then-CFO (and subsequently CEO) Gary Kelly recognized that IT would be important to meeting the company's strategic objectives. He initiated a business transformation that relied on building a strong IT foundation. This case describes the IT and business changes Southwest introduced to help the company succeed in its increasingly competitive environment. More >>

Encouraging Cooperation in Sharing Supermodular Costs (Working paper)
Andreas S. Schulz, Nelson A. Uhan

In this paper, we study the computational complexity and algorithmic aspects of computing the least core value of supermodular cost cooperative games, and uncover some structural properties of the least core of these games. More >>

The Shift from Centralized to Peer-to-Peer Communication in an Online Community: Participants as a Useful Aspect of Genre Analysis (Working paper)
Masamichi Takahashi, JoAnne Yates, George Herman, Atsushi Ito, Keiichi Nemoto

In this paper we analyzed an online community based on a mailing list that was created as an internal marketing tool for launching a new network service. We focused on the change in communication over time among dispersed Sales representatives and the employees in a centralized Service Department. We conducted a genre analysis based on content (what), purpose (why), timing (when), form (how) and participants (who communicates to whom) (Yates and Orlikowski, 2002). Analyzing the participants in a genre and how those participants changed over time highlighted a shift from centralized to dispersed, peer-to-peer communication in this community. We highlight implications both for genre analysis and for organizational practice. More >>

Identifying Formal and Informal Influence in Technology Adoption with Network Externalities (Working paper)
Catherine Tucker

Firms introducing network technologies (whose benefits depend on who installs the technology) need to understand which user characteristics confer the greatest network benefits on other potential adopters. To examine which adopter characteristics matter, I use the introduction of a video-messaging technology in an investment bank. More >>

How Does Popularity Information Affect Choices? Theory and A Field Experiment (Working paper)
Catherine Tucker, Juanjuan Zhang

Does popularity information (i.e., information on the frequency with which a product has been chosen) benefit niche or mainstream products more? More >>

Interpersonal Authority in a Theory of the Firm (Working paper)
Eric Van den Steen

This paper develops a theory of the firm in which a firm's centralized asset ownership and low-powered incentives give a manager 'interpersonal authority' over employees (in a world with differing priors). The paper derives such interpersonal authority as an equilibrium phenomenon. One key result is that a manager's control overcritical assets-through its effect on the level of outside options allows the manager to order employees what to do. The paper thus provides micro- foundations for the idea that bringing a project inside affirm gives the manager authority over that project, while-in the process-explaining concentrated asset ownership, low-powered incentives, and centralized authority as typical characteristics of firms. It also leads to a new perspective on the firm as a legal entity and, building on the insights of a parallel paper, to a new theory for firm Boundaries based on the idea of break-up. A key feature of the latter theory is that firm boundaries matter even though both ex-ante investments and ex-post actions are perfectly contractible. More >>

Modeling a Paradigm Shift: From Producer Innovation to User and Open Collaborative Innovation (Working paper)
Eric von Hippel, et al.

In this paper we assess the economic viability of innovation by producers relative to two increasingly important alternative models: innovations by single user individuals or firms, and open collaborative innovation projects. More >>

Profiting from voluntary information spillovers: How users benefit by freely revealing their innovations (Working paper)
Eric von Hippel, et al.

Empirical studies of innovation have found that end users frequently develop important product and process innovations. Defying conventional wisdom on the negative effects of uncompensated spillovers, innovative users also often openly reveal their innovations to competing users and to manufacturers. More >>

Users as Service Innovators: The Case of Banking Services (Working paper)
Eric von Hippel, et al.

Many services can be self-provided. An individual user or a user firm can, for example, choose to do its own accounting - choose to self-provide that service - instead of hiring an accounting firm to provide it. More >>

Open Source Software and the "Private-Collective" Innovation Model: Issues for Organization Science (Working paper)
Eric von Hippel, et al.

Currently two models of innovation are prevalent in organization science. The "private investment" model assumes returns to the innovator results from private goods and efficient regimes of intellectual property protection. The "collective action" model assumes that under conditions of market failure, innovators collaborate in order to produce a public good. The phenomenon of open source software development shows that users program to solve their own as well as shared technical problems, and freely reveal their innovations without appropriating private returns from selling the software. More >>

Measuring user innovation in Dutch high tech SMEs: Frequency, nature and transfer to producers (Working paper)
Eric von Hippel, et al.

A detailed survey of 498 "high tech" SMEs in the Netherlands shows process innovation by user firms to be common practice. Fifty four percent of these relatively small firms reported developing entirely novel process equipment or software for their own use and/or modifying these at significant private expense. More >>

The Prevalence of User Innovation and Free Innovation Transfers: Implications for Statistical Indicators and Innovation Policy (Working paper)
Eric Von Hippel, et al.

Statistical indicators have not kept pace with innovation research. Today, it is well understood that many industrial and consumer products are developed by users, and that many innovations developed at private cost are freely shared. New statistical indicators will empower policymakers to take advantage of the latest research findings in their innovation policymaking, and will enable them to benefit from improved measurement of resulting policy impacts. More >>

Why Markets Make Mistakes (Working paper)
Henry Birdseye Weil

Many models of markets are based on assumptions of rationality, transparency, efficiency, and homogeneity in various combinations. They assume, at least implicitly, that decision makers understand the structure of the market and how it produces the dynamics which can be observed or might potentially occur. Are these models acceptable simplifications, or can they be seriously misleading? More >>

Asymmetric Information Distances for Automated Taxonomy Construction (Working paper)
Wei Lee Woon, Stuart E. Madnick

A novel method for automatically constructing taxonomies for specific research domains is presented. The proposed methodology uses term co-occurence frequencies as an indicator of the semantic closeness between terms. More >>

Semantic Distances for Technology Landscape Visualization (Working paper)
Wei Lee Woon, Stuart E. Madnick

This paper presents a novel approach to the visualization and subsequent elucidation of research domains in science and technology. The proposed methodology is based on the use of bibliometrics; i.e., analysis is conducted using information regarding trends and patterns of publication rather than the contents of these publications. More >>

The Role of an Online Community in Relation to Other Communication Channels in a Business Development Case (Working paper)
JoAnne Yates, et al.

We investigated how sales representatives (Salespeople) and members of a service business development department (the Service Dept.) communicated within an informal online community, particularly in relation to their use of other informal and formal communication channels. More >>

Semantic Integration Approach to Efficient Business Data Supply Chain: Integration Approach to Interoperable XBRL (Working paper)
Hongwei Zhu, Stuart E. Madnick

As an open standard for electronic communication of business and financial data, XBRL has the potential of improving the efficiency of the business data supply chain. A number of jurisdictions have developed different XBRL taxonomies as their data standards. Semantic heterogeneity exists in these taxonomies, the corresponding instances, and the internal systems that store the original data. Consequently, there are still substantial difficulties in creating and using XBRL instances that involve multiple taxonomies. To fully realize the potential benefits of XBRL, we have to develop technologies to reconcile semantic heterogeneity and enable interoperability of various parts of the supply chain. In this paper, we analyze the XBRL standard and use examples of different taxonomies to illustrate the interoperability challenge. We also propose a technical solution that incorporates schema matching and context mediation techniques to improve the efficiency of the production and consumption of XBRL data. More >>