John Sterman

Jay W. Forrester Professor of Management
Professor of System Dynamics and Engineering Systems
Director, MIT System Dynamics Group

Biography | Selected Publications

"Booms, Busts, and Beer: Understanding the Dynamics of Supply Chains." Sterman, John D. (Forthcoming) Handbook of Behavioral Operations Management: Social and Psychological Dynamics in Production and Service Settings. E. Bendoly, W. Van Wezel, D. Bachrach (eds). New York, Oxford University Press.

"Learning for Ourselves: Interactive Simulations to Catalyze Science-Based Environmental Activism." Sterman, John D. (Forthcoming). Science Based Activism. P. E. Stoknes and K. A. Eliassen, eds.

"Parameter and Confidence Interval Estimation in Dynamic Models: Maximum Likelihood and Bootstrapping Methods."​Struben, Jeroen, et al. (Forthcoming). Analytical Handbook for Dynamic Modelers. Oliva, Rogelio, Hazhir Rahmandad, and Nathaniel Osgood (eds.) Cambridge, MA, M.I.T. Press. 

"Stumbling towards Sustainability." ​Sterman, John D. (Forthcoming). In Henderson, R., Tushman, M., and Gulati, R. (eds.) Organizational & Strategic Change and the Challenge of Sustainability. Oxford University Press.

"Do Markets Mitigate Misperceptions of Feedback?" Kampmann, Christian E., and John D. Sterman. System Dynamics Review. 2014.  (2014)

"World Climate: A Role-Play Simulation of Global Climate Negotiations." Sterman, John, Travis Franck, et al. Simulation and Gaming. Published online 9 January 2014. 

"Interactive web-based simulations for strategy and sustainability: The MIT Sloan LearningEdge management flight simulators, Part I." Sterman, John D. (2014). System Dynamics Review. 30(1-2): 89-121. (2014)

"How to save a leaky boat: Capability Traps and the Failure of Win-Win Investments in Process Improvement and Industry Self-Regulation." Lyneis, J. and John D. Sterman (2014). Working paper. (2014)

"Interactive web-based simulations for strategy and sustainability: The MIT Sloan LearningEdge management flight simulators, Part II." Sterman, John D (2014). System Dynamics Review. 30(3): 206-231.  (2014)

"Making Systems Thinking More Than a Slogan." Network for Business Sustainability. Sterman, John D (2013). http://nbs.net/making-systems-thinking-more-than-a-slogan/. (2013)

"Adaptation of Mitigation? Lessons from abolition in the battle over climate policy." Sterman, John D. http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/07/05/2258731/adaptation-or-mitigation-lessons-from-abolition-in-thebattle-over-climate-policy/ (2013)

"Cyclical Dynamics of Airline Industry Earnings." Pierson, Kawika, and Sterman, John D. Sterman (2013). System Dynamics Review 29(3): 129-156 (2013)

"Management Flight Simulators to Support Climate Negotiations." Sterman, John D., Thomas Fiddaman, Travis Franck, Andrew Jones, Stephanie McCauley, Philip Rice, Elizabeth Sawin, and Lori Siegel (2013). Environmental Modelling and Software 44 (June): 122-135 (2013)

"Order Stability in Supply Chains: The Impact of Coordination Stock." Croson, Rachel T. A., Karen Lisa Donohue, Elena Katok, and John D. Sterman (2013). Production and Operations Management 23(2): 176-196 (2013)

Stumbling towards Sustainability: Why organizational learning and radical innovation are necessary to build a more sustainable world—but not sufficient (2013)

Sterman, J. 2013. What the Future May Bring (Review of Randers, “2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years).” Sloan Management Review 54(2): 13-14. http://sloanreview.mit.edu/the-magazine/2013- winter/54207/what-the-future-may-bring/.

"Reporting Guidelines for Simulation-based Research in Social Sciences." Rahmandad, Hazhir, and Sterman, John D (2012). System Dynamics Review 28(4): 396-411. (2012)

"Climate Interactive: The C-ROADS Climate Policy Model." Sterman, John D., Thomas Fiddaman, Travis Franck, Andrew Jones, Stephanie McCauley, Philip Rice, Elizabeth Sawin and Lori Siegel (2012). System Dynamics Review 28(3): 295-305 (2012)

"Foreword: Festschrift for Markus Schwaninger." Sterman, John D. Systemic Management for Intelligent Organizations: Concepts, Model-Based Approaches, and Applications.  (2012)

"ReThink Health Dynamics: Understanding and Influencing Local Health System Change." Hirsch, Gary, Jack Homer, Bobby Milstein, L. Scherrer, Christina Ingersoll, Laura Landy, John D. Sterman, Elliott Fisher (2012). International System Dynamics Conference, University of St. Gallen, Switzerland, System Dynamics Society. (2012)

"Sustaining Sustainability: Creating a Systems Science in a Fragmented Academy and Polarized World." Sterman, John D. In Weinstein, Michael P., and R. Eugene Turner (Eds.) Sustainability Science: The Emerging Paradigm and the Urban Environment.  Springer: 21-58. 2012.  (2012)

"Utilities Need to Cut Trees, Not Costs." Sterman, J. Boston Globe (op-ed), 5 November, A11 (2011)

"Communicating Climate Change Risks in a Skeptical World." Sterman, John D (2011). Climatic Change 108: 811-826 (2011)

"Dynamics of Shared Capitalism Policies." ​Hsueh, Joe C. and John D. Sterman (2011). International System Dynamics Conference. Washington, DC, System Dynamics Society. (2011)

"Jay Wright Forrester." Lane, David C., and John D. Sterman. In S. Gass and A. Assad (Eds.) Pioneers of Operations Research. New York, Springer: 363-386. (2011)

"Strategies for Transportation Electrification: Overcoming Thresholds, and Overly Optimistic Forecasts." ​Struben, Jeroen, and John D. Sterman (2011). International System Dynamics Conference. Washington, DC, System Dynamics Society. (2011)

"Understanding Innovation Diffusion in the Presence of Supply Constraints and Price Feedback: The Case of the Toyota Prius." ​Keith, David, John D. Sterman, Jeroen Struben (2011). International System Dynamics Conference. Washington DC, System Dynamics Society. (2011)

"In Praise of Greensburg, Kansas." John Sterman, Randy Olson. http://thinkprogress.org, Nov. 2010

"Boom and Bust Cycles in Wind Energy Diffusion Due to Inconsistency and Short-term Bias in National Energy Policies." Dykes, Katherine, and John D. Sterman (2010). International System Dynamics Conference, Seoul, Korea. www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2010/proceed/papers/P1138.pdf (2010)

Boom and Bust Cycles in Wind Energy Diffusion Due to Inconsistency and Short-term Bias in National Energy Policies (2010)

"Death Spirals and Virtuous Cycles: Human Resource Dynamics in Knowledge-Based Services." Sterman, John D., and Rogelio Oliva. In Maglio, Paul P., Cheryl A. Kieliszewski and James C. Spohrer (eds). Handbook of Service Science. New York, Springer, 321-358. 2010. 

"Does formal system dynamics training improve people's understanding of accumulation?" Sterman, John D (2010). System Dynamics Review, 26(4): 316-334. (2010)

Greensburg, Kansas: A Red State Town Turns Green (2010)

"Jay Wright Forrester." Sterman, John D., and David C. Lane. Pioneers of Operations Research. S. Gass and A. Assad (eds). New York, Springer: 363-386. 2010.

"The Carbon Bathtub." Sterman, John D. National Geographic Magazine, December 2009, 26-28. http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/big-idea/05/carbon-bath.

"A Sober Optimist's Guide to Sustainability." Sterman, John D. Sloan Management Review. 2009. Available at: sloanreview.mit.edu/beyond-green/a-sober-optimists-guide-to-sustainability.

Climate change: On to Copenhagen. Sterman, John D. Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences. INFORMS Science of Better Podcast Series. 2009.

"Current emissions reductions in the lead-up to COP-15 are likely to be insufficient to stabilize atmospheric CO2 levels: Using C-ROADS – a simple computer simulation of climate change – to support long-term climate policy development." ​Sawin, Elizabeth R., Andrew P. Jones, Tom Fiddaman, Lori S. Siegel, Diana Wright, Travis Franck, Andreas Barkman, Tom Cummings, Felicitas von Peter, Jacqueline McGlade, Robert W. Corell, John D. Sterman (2009). International Scientific Congress on Climate Change, Copenhagen, DK, 10 March 2009.

"Effects of Feedback Delay on Learning." Rahmandad, Hazhir, Nelson P. Repenning and John D. Sterman (2009). System Dynamics Review 25(4): 309-338.  (2009)

"The Beer Game." Sterman, John D. In S. Kapoor, Business Simulations: Concepts and Applications. Hyderabad, India, Icfai Books. 2009.

"The Clean Technology Startup Management Flight Simulator." ​Hsueh, Joe C., David Miller and John D. Sterman (2009). Albuquerque, NM, International System Dynamics Conference. (2009)

"Why Don't Well-Educated Adults Understand Accumulation? A Challenge to Researchers, Educators, and Citizens." Cronin, Matthew A., Cleotilde Gonzalez, and John D. Sterman (2009). Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 108, 116-130. (2009)

"Addressing Global Warming Through Systems Thinking." Sterman, John D. (2008). Global Edge (in Japanese). 8: 14- 15.  (2008)

"Heterogeneity and Network Structure in the Dynamics of Diffusion: Comparing Agent-Based and Differential Equation Models." Rahmandad, Hazhir, and John D. Sterman. Management Science, 54(5). 998-1014. (2008)

Sterman, John D. Interview. Visions: MIT Interviews. A. Frank. Cambridge, MA, MIT Visual Arts Program: 56-69. 2008.

"Risk Communication on Climate: Mental Models and Mass Balance." John D. Sterman (2008). Science 322: 532-533. (2008)

"Sony's Battle for Video Game Supremacy." ​Sterman, John D., Jekarl Kahn, and Cate Reavis (2008). Case Study: Cambridge MA 02142, MIT Sloan School of Management. (2008)

"Transition challenges for alternative fuel vehicle and transportation systems." Struben, Jeroen. and John D. Sterman (2008). Environment and Planning B 35, 1070-1097. (2008)

"Addressing Global Warming Through Systems Thinking." Sterman, John D. (2007). Global Edge: 8.  (2007)

"Adults' Mental Models of Climate Change Violate Conservation of Matter." Sterman, John D., and Linda Booth Sweeney (2007). Climatic Change 80(3-4). 213-238. (2007)

"Cloudy Skies: Assessing Public Understanding of Global Warming." ​Sterman, John D. and Linda Booth Sweeney (2007). Reflections 7(3): 36-54. (2007)

"Exploring the Next Great Frontier: System Dynamics at Fifty." Sterman, John. (ed.) Special double issue of System Dynamics Review, 23(2-3). 2007

"Exploring the Next Great Frontier: System Dynamics at Fifty." ​Sterman, John D. (2007). Introduction to 50th Anniversary Special Issue of System Dynamics Review. Vol. 23(2-3): 89-93.  (2007)

"Foreword." Sterman, John D. (2007). The Electronic Oracle. D. Meadows and J. Robinson. Albany, New York, System Dynamics Society: xvii-xviii. (2007)

"Getting Big Too Fast: Strategic Dynamics with Increasing Returns and Bounded Rationality." Sterman, John D., Rebecca Henderson, Eric D. Beinhocker, and Lee I. Newman. Management Science 53(4), 683-696. (2007)

"Thinking about systems: Students' and their teachers' conceptions of natural and social systems." Sweeney, Linda Booth, and John D. Sterman (2007). System Dynamics Review 23(2-3): 285-312. 2007. 

"Learning from Evidence in a Complex World." Sterman, John D. (2006). American Journal of Public Health. 96(3), 505-514. 2006. 

"Operational and Behavioral Causes of Supply Chain Instability." Sterman, John D. In Octavio A. Carranza and F. Villegas (eds), The Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains. Palgrave McMillan, 17-56. 2006. 

Why ‘wait-and-see’ won't do. Sterman, John D., and Linda Booth Sweeney (2005). London. OpenDemocracy.  (2005)

"Managing Complex Dynamic Systems: Challenge and Opportunity for Naturalistic Decision Making Theory." Sterman, John D., and Linda Booth Sweeney. In Montgomery, Henry, Raanan Lipschitz, and Berndt Brehmer (Eds.), How Professionals Make Decisions. Mahwah, NJ, Lawrence Erlbaum Associates: 57-90. 2005.

"Racing with the Red Queen: Dynamics of P2P File Sharing." Case, S. and John D. Sterman (2004). Case Study, MIT Sloan School of Management. 21 pp. (2005)

"Supply Chain Dynamics, the 'Beer Distribution Game' and Misperceptions in Dynamic Decision Making." Sterman, John D. Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems, Paris; Oxford, UNESCO Publishing-EOLSS Publishers. 2005. 

"Supply Chain Management: A Teaching Experiment." Croson, Rachel, Karen Donohue, Elena Katok, John D. Sterman. In Zwick, Rami, and Amnon Rapoport (eds.) Experimental Business Research, Vol. 3: Marketing, Accounting, and Cognitive Perspectives, ch. 13. Norwell, MA, Kluwer Academic Publishers. 2005.

"The Impact of Endogenous Demand on Push-Pull Production Systems." Gonçalves, Paulo, Jim Hines, and John D. Sterman (2005). System Dynamics Review. 21(3), 187-216. (2005)

Ventures in Salt: Compass Minerals International. Henderson, Rebecca M., Ramana Nanda, and John D. Sterman (2005). Case Study, MIT Sloan School of Management.  (2005)

"Market Growth, Collapse, and Failures to Learn from Interactive Simulation Games." Sterman, John D. Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems, Paris; Oxford, UNESCO Publishing-EOLSS Publishers. 2004.

"E´ difficile creare interesse risolvendo problemi che non si sono mai manifestati." Repenning, Nelson P., and John D. Sterman (2003). Quaderni di Management, 2 (March-April): 70-97. Originally published in Calif. Management Review, 2001. (2003)

"Limits to Growth in the New Economy: Exploring the 'Get Big Fast' Strategy in e-commerce." Oliva, Rogelio, John D. Sterman, and Martin Giese (2003). System Dynamics Review, 19(2). 83-117. (2003)

"Overcoming the 90% Syndrome: Iteration Management in Concurrent Development Projects." Ford, David N., and John D. Sterman (2003). Concurrent Engineering: Research and Applications, 11(3). 177-186.  (2003)

"The Liar's Club: Concealing Rework in Concurrent Development." Ford, David N., and John D. Sterman (2003). Concurrent Engineering: Research and Applications, 11(3). 211-220. (2003)

"What do we really want? A manifesto for the organization of the 21st century." Ancona, Deborah., Lotte Bailyn, John D. Sterman, et al. Inventing the Organizations of the 21st Century. T. Malone, R. Laubacher and M. Scott Morton (eds.) Cambridge, MA, MIT Press: 325-332. 2003

"A Behavioral Model of the Economic Long Wave." Sterman, John D. In The Legacy of Herbert Simon in Economic Analysis. P. E. Earl. (ed.), Cheltenham, UK, Edward Elgar, 101-140. Reprinted from J. Econ. Beh. and Org. (1985). 2002. 

All Models are Wrong: Reflections on Becoming a Systems Scientist: 2002 Jay W. Forrester Award Address. Sterman, John D. (2002). System Dynamics Review, 18(4) 2002: 501-531. 

"Capability Traps and Self-Confirming Attribution Errors in the Dynamics of Process Improvement." Repenning, Nelson P., and John D. Sterman (2002). Administrative Science Quarterly. 47, 265-295. (2002)

Cloudy Skies: Assessing Public Understanding of Global Warming. Sterman, John D., and Linda Booth Sweeney (2002). System Dynamics Review, 18(2). 207-240. (2002)

"Dana Meadows: Thinking Globally, Acting Locally." Sterman, John D. (2002). System Dynamics Review, 18(2) 101- 107 (2002)

Nobody Ever Gets Credit for Fixing Problems that Never Happened. Repenning, Nelson P., and John D. Sterman 2002. IEEE Engineering Management Review 30(4): 64-78. 

"System Dynamics Modeling for Project Management." Sterman, John D. (2002). Projects and Profits. II: 46-50.  (2002)

"System Dynamics Modeling: Tools for Learning in a Complex World." Sterman, John D. (2002). IEEE Engineering Management Review, 30(1): 42-52.  (2002)

The Global Citizen: Celebrating the Life of Dana Meadows. ​Sterman, John D., (ed. 2002). System Dynamics Review. 18(2).

"Cutting Corners and Working Overtime: Quality Erosion in the Service Industry." Oliva, Rogelio. and John D. Sterman (2001). Management Science, 47(7), 894-914. (2001)

"Fine-Tuning Your Causal Loop Diagrams, Part I." Sterman, John D. (2001). The Systems Thinker, 12(5): 6-7.  (2001)

"Fine-Tuning Your Causal Loop Diagrams, Part II." Sterman, John D (2001). The Systems Thinker, 12(6): 6-7.  (2001)

Instructor's Manual to Accompany Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking for a Complex World. John Sterman. Irwin/McGraw-Hill, 2001.

"Nobody Ever Gets Credit for Fixing Problems that Never Happened: Creating and Sustaining Process Improvement." Repenning, Nelson P., and John D. Sterman (2001). California Management Review 43(4): 64-88.  (2001)

"System Dynamics Modeling: Tools for Learning in a Complex World." Sterman, John D. (2001). California Management Review, 43(4): 8-25.  (2001)

"Bathtub Dynamics: Initial Results of a Systems Thinking Inventory." Sweeney, Linda Booth, and John D. Sterman (2000). System Dynamics Review, 16(4), 249-294. (2000)

"Boom, bust, and failures to learn in expermental markets." Paich, Mark, and and John D. Sterman. Strategisches Management im Zeichen von Umbruch und Wandel (Festchrift for Erich Zahn). Foschiani, S., W. Habenicht, U. Schmid and G. Waescher, eds. Stuttgart, Schäffer-Poeschel Verlag, 117-150. Reprinted from Management Science. 2000. 

Sterman, John. Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking for a Complex World. Irwin/McGraw-Hill (textbook with CD-ROM; book website and curriculum resources at www.mhhe.com/sterman. [Winner, 2002 Jay W. Forrester Award.] Available in Chinese (2008), Czech (2005), Japanese (2009). (2000)

"Getting Quality the Old Fashioned Way: Self-Confirming Attributions in the Dynamics of Process Improvement." Nelson P. Repenning, and John D. Sterman. In Scott, R., and R. Cole (Eds.), The Quality Movement in America: Lessons for Theory and Research. Newbury Park, CA: Sage, 201-235. 2000. 

"Learning in and About Complex Systems. Reflections." Sterman, John D. (2000). The Journal of the Society for Organizational Learning, 1(3), 24-29. (2000)

"Path Dependence, Competition and Succession in the Dynamics of Scientific Revolution." Sterman, John D., and Jason Wittenberg (1999). Organization Science. 10(3), 322-341. (1999)

"Overcoming the Improvement Paradox." Keating, Elizabeth, Rogelio Oliva, Nelson Repenning, Scott Rockart, and John D. Sterman (1999). European Management Journal, 17(2). 120-134.  (1999)

"Dynamic Modeling of Product Development Processes." Ford, David N., and John D. Sterman (1998). System Dynamics Review, 14(1), 31-68.  (1998)

"Dynamics of Managing Multiple Improvement Efforts." In Goush, S. (Ed.), Advances in the Management of Organizational Quality, Vol 3. Stamford, CT: JAI Press, 1-55. 1998.

"Expert Knowledge Elicitation for Improving Mental and Formal Models." Ford, David N, and John D. Sterman (1998). System Dynamics Review. 14(4), 309-340.  (1998)

"Playing the Maintenance Game: How Mental Models Drive Organizational Decisions." Carroll, John S., John D. Sterman, and Alfred A. Marcus. In Stern, R. R., and J. J. Halpern (Eds.), Nonrational Elements of Organizational Decision Making. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 99-121. 1998.

"Superstitious Learning." Sterman, John D. (1997). The Systems Thinker, 8(5), 1-5. (1997)

"Towards Evaluation of Systems Thinking Interventions: A Case Study." Cavaleri, Steven, and John D. Sterman (1997). System Dynamics Review. 13(2). 171-186.  (1997)

"Unanticipated Side Effects of Successful Quality Improvement Programs: Exploring a paradox of organizational improvement." Sterman, John D., Nelson P. Repenning, and Fred Kofman (1997). Management Science. 43(4), April, 503-521. (1997)

Effects of Feedback Complexity on Dynamic Decision Making. Diehl, Ernst, and John D. Sterman (1995). Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 62(2). 198-215. (1995)

"Designing Corporate Strategy with System Dynamics: A Case Study in the Pulp and Paper Industry." Risch, Jonathan D., Luis Troyano-Bermúdez, and John D. Sterman (1995). System Dynamics Review, 11(4). 249-274. (1995)

"Mode Locking and Entrainment of Endogenous Economic Cycles." Haxholdt, Christian, Christian Kampmann., Erik Mosekilde, and John D. Sterman (1995). System Dynamics Review, 11(3). 177-198. (1995)

"The Meaning of Models." Sterman, John D (1994). Science, 264: 329-330. (1994)

"Beyond Training Wheels." Sterman, John D. In Senge, Peter M. et al. (eds.) The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook. New York: Doubleday/Currency, 177-184. (1994)

"Business Cycles and Long Waves." Mosekilde, Erik, and John D. Sterman. In Semmler, Willi (Ed.), Business Cycles: Theory and Empirical Methods. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 13-51. 1994.

"Evolutionary Economics and System Dynamics." Radzicki, Michael J., and John D. Sterman. In Englund, R. (Ed.), Evolutionary Concepts in Contemporary Economics. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 61-89. 1994. 

"Learning in and about Complex Systems." Sterman, John D. (1994). System Dynamics Review. 10 (2-3), 291-330. (1994)

Modeling for Learning Organizations. Edited by John D. W. Morecroft and John Sterman. Portland, OR: Productivity Press, 1994.

"Caught by the Long Wave." Sterman, John D. (1993). Toronto Globe and Mail, 20 February. (1993)

"Boom, Bust, and Failures to Learn in Experimental Markets." Paich, Mark, and John D. Sterman (1993). Management Science, 39(12), 1439-1458. (1993)

Entrainment in a Disaggregated Long Wave Model. Kampmann, Christian, Christian Haxholdt, Erik Mosekilde, and John D. Sterman. In Loet A. Leydesdorff (Eds.), Evolutionary Economics and Chaos Theory Pinter.  (1993)

"Mode Locking and Nonlinear Entrainment of Macroeconomic Cycles." Mosekilde, Erik., Erik Reiter Larsen, John D. Sterman, and J. S. Thompsen. In Day, R., and P. Chen (Eds.), Nonlinear Economics and Evolutionary Economics. New York: Oxford University Press. 1993

"Teaching Takes Off: Flight Simulators for Management Education." ​Sterman, John D. (1992). OR/MS Today, 40- 44. (1992)

"Model Supported Case Studies for Management Education." Graham, Alan K., John D. W. Morecroft, Peter M. Senge, and John D. Sterman (1992). European Journal of Operational Research, 59(1), 151-166. (1992)

Long Wave Decline and the Politics of Depression. Sterman, J. 1992. Bank Credit Analyst, 44(4), 26-42.

"Modelling for Learning Organizations." Morecroft, John D. W., and John D. Sterman, eds. (1992). Special issue of European Journal of Operational Research, 59(1). (1992)

"Coping with complexity: Deterministic chaos in human decisionmaking behavior." Mosekilde, Erik, Erik Reimer Larsen, and John D. Sterman. In Casti, J. L., and A. Karlqvist (Eds.), Beyond Belief: Randomness, Prediction, and Explanation in Science (199-229). Boston: CRC Press. 1991. 

"Hyperchaotic Phenomena in Dynamic Decision Making." Thomsen, Jesper Skovhus., Mosekilde, Erik, and Sterman, John D. In Singh, M. G., and L. Travé-Massuyès (Eds.), Decision Support Systems and Qualitative Reasoning (149-154). Amsterdam: Elsevier Science Publishers. 1991. 

"Systems Thinking and Organizational Learning: Acting Locally and Thinking Globally in the Organization of the Future." Senge, Peter M., and John D. Sterman. In Kochan, T., and Useem, M. (Eds.), Transforming Organizations Oxford: Oxford University Press, 353-371. 1991. 

"A Long Wave Perspective on the Economy in the 1990s." Sterman, J., 1990. Bank Credit Analyst. 42(1), 28-47.

"A Petroleum Life Cycle Model for the United States with Endogenous Technology, Exploration, Recovery, and Demand." Davidsen, Pål I., John D. Sterman, and George P. Richardson (1990). System Dynamics Review. 6(1), 66-93. (1990)

"Modeling Managerial Behavior: Misperceptions of Feedback in a Dynamic Decision Making Experiment." Sterman, John D. (1989). Management Science. 35(3), 321-339. (1989)

"Computer-Based Case Studies in Management Education and Research." Graham, Alan K., Peter M. Senge, John D. Sterman, John D. W. Morecroft. In Milling, P. and E. Zahn (eds), Computer Based Management of Complex Systems. Berlin: Springer Verlag, 317-326. 1989.

"Control Theory Heuristics for Improving the Behavior of Economic Models." Özverenand, Cüneyt M., and John D. Sterman (1989). System Dynamics Review. 5(2), 130-147. (1989)

Deterministic Chaos in an Experimental Economic System. Sterman, John D. (1989). Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. 12, 1-28. (1989)

"Misperceptions of Feedback in Dynamic Decision Making." Sterman, John D. (1989). Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 43(3), 301-335.  (1989)

"A Skeptic's Guide to Computer Models." Sterman, John D. In L. Grant (ed.) Foresight and National Decisions. Lanham, MD: University Press of America, 133-169. Revised and Reprinted in: Barney, G., Kreutzer W., and Garrett, M. 1991) Managing a Nation. Boulder, CO: Westciew Press, 209-230. (1988)

"Deterministic Chaos in Models of Human Behavior: Methodological Issues and Experimental Results." Sterman, John D., 1988. System Dynamics Review. 4, 148-178.

"Modeling the Estimation of Petroleum Resources in the United States." ​Sterman, John D., George P. Richardson, and Pål I. Davidsen (1988). Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 33(3) 219-249. (1988)

"Modeling the Formation of Expectations: The History of Energy Demand Forecasts." Sterman, John D., 1988. International Journal of Forecasting. 4(2), 243-259.

"Nonlinear Dynamics in the World Economy: The Economic Long Wave." Sterman, John D. in P. Christiansen and R. Parmentier (eds.) Structure, Coherence, and Chaos in Dynamical Systems. Manchester: Manchester University Press. 1988. 

"Debt, Default, and Long Waves: Is History Relevant?" Sterman, John D. The Escalation in Debt and Disinflation: Prelude to Financial Mania and Crash? 1987.  (1987)

"Expectation Formation in Behavioral Simulation Models." Sterman, John D. (1987). Behavioral Science. 32, 190-211 (1987)

"Testing Behavioral Simulation Models by Direct Experiment." Sterman, John D. (1987). Management Science. 33(12), 1572-1592. (1987)

"The Economic Long Wave: Theory and Evidence." Sterman, John D. The Long Wave Debate. 1987. (1987)

"Debt, Default, and Long Waves: Is History Relevant?" Sterman, John D. (1986). Bank Credit Analyst. 38(5), 28-42. (1986)

"The Economic Long Wave: Theory and Evidence." Sterman, John D. (1986). System Dynamics Review. 2(2), 87-125. (1986)

"A Behavioral Model of the Economic Long Wave." Sterman, John D. (1985). Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. 6, 17-53.  (1985)

"A Disaggregate Population Model of China." Wang, Qifan, John D. Sterman (1985). Simulation. 45(1) 7-14. (1985)

"An Experiment to Evaluate Methods for Estimating Fossil Fuel Resources." Sterman, John D., and George P. Richardson (1985). Journal of Forecasting. 4(2), 197-226. (1985)

"An Integrated Theory of the Economic Long Wave." Sterman, John D. (1985). Futures. 17, 104-131 (1985)

"Bifurcations and Chaotic Behavior in a Simple Model of the Economic Long Wave." Rasmussen, Steen., Erik Mosekilde, and John D. Sterman (1985). System Dynamics Review. 1(1) 92-110. (1985)

"STRATEGEM-2: A Microcomputer Simulation Game of the Kondratiev Cycle." Sterman, J. and D. L. Meadows (1985). Simulation and Games. 16(2), 174-202.  (1985)

"The Growth of Knowledge: Testing a Theory of Scientific Revolutions with a Formal Model." Sterman, John D. (1985). Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 28(2) 93-122. (1985)

"Appropriate Summary Statistics for Evaluating the Historical Fit of System Dynamics Models." Sterman, John D (1984). Dynamica. 10(2) 51-66.  (1984)

"The Long Wave." Sterman, John D. (1983). Science. 219 (18 March), 1276. (1983)

"Economic Vulnerability and the Energy Transition." Sterman, John D (1983). Energy Systems and Policy 7(4), 259-301. (1983)

"A Dynamic, Disequilibrium Model of Energy-Economy Interactions." Sterman, John D (1982). International Journal of Energy Systems 2(3), 159-163. (1982)

"Policy Analysis of the Low-Level Radioactive Waste-Disposal Problem in the United States." Maloney, S., John D. Sterman (1982). Nuclear Safety. 23(3) 300-309.  (1982)

 

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Research Center(s)

General Expertise
Action learning; Alternative energy; Automotive industry; Business ethics; Business process modeling; Carbon footprint; Clean energy; Climate change; Climate policy; Corporate social responsibility; Emissions trading; Emissions trading; Energy; Energy efficiency; Environment; Environmental economics; Environmental leadership; Environmental policy; Fishing industry; Fracking; Global climate change; Global warming; Hydraulic fracturing; Managerial change; Natural gas; Nonlinear dynamics; Oil; Project management; Simulation; Social responsibility; Solar power; Sustainability; Sustainable design; System dynamics; System dynamics; Total Quality Management (TQM); Wind power