Arnold Barnett

George Eastman Professor of Management Science
Professor of Statistics

Biography | Selected Publications

Applied Probability: Models and Intuition. Barnett, Arnold I. Charlestown, MA: Dynamic Ideas Press LLC, 2015.

"Collision Course? The North Airfield Safety Study at Los Angeles International Airport." Barnett, Arnold, Michael Ball, George Donohue, Mark Hansen, Amedeo Odoni and Antonio Trani. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice Vol. 77 (2015): 14-34. (2015)

“Has Successful Terror Gone to Ground?” Barnett, Arnold I. Risk Analysis Vol. 35, No. 4 (2015): 732-740. (2015)

"The Loss of Malaysia Flight 370: An Analytical Look at What it Means and Doesn’t Mean About Aviation Safety." Barnett, Arnold. ORMS Today, February 2015.

"Review of Performance Measurement in the Public Sector: Principles and Practices.” Barnett, Arnold I. Review of Performance Measurement in the Public Sector: Principles and Practices. Interfaces, January 2014.

“Moving Up: Five More Years of Aviation Safety." Barnett, Arnold I. Aerosafety World, December 2013.

"Why You Won't Die in a Plane Crash." Barnett Arnold I. CNN Opinion, August 2013.

“Did Nate Silver Beat the Tortoise?” Barnett, Arnold I. Analytics, January 2013.

"Southwest Jet Rupture and Flight Risk." Barnett, Arnold I. CNN Opinions. April 2011.

"The North Airfield Safety Study, Los Angeles International Airport." Arnold I. Barnett, Michael Ball, George Donohue, Mark Hansen, Amedeo Odoni, and Antonio Trani, A. Barnett, Michael Ball, George Donohue, Mark Hansen, Amedeo Odoni and Antonio Trani. Los Angeles CA: 2010. 

“Resist the Complainers." Barnett, Arnold I. Room for Debate Blog. The New York Times, November 2010.

“Cross-National Differences in Aviation Safety Records." Barnett, Arnold I. Transportation Science Vol. 44, No. 3 (2010): 322-332. (2010)

“Selecting the Nation’s CEO: A Risk Assessment of the Electoral College.” Barnett, Arnold I. Journal of Managerial Issues Vol. 21, No. 4 (2009): 447-460. (2009)

Aviation Safety and Security." Barnett, Arnold I.  The Global Airline Industry, John Wiley & Sons, edited by Peter Belobaba, Amedeo Odoni and Cynthia Barnhard, 313-342. West Sussex, England: John Wiley & Sons, 2009.

"Is It Really Safe To Fly?” Barnett, Arnold I. In Tutorials in Operations Research 2008, edited by Zhi-Long Chen, S. Raghavan, Paul Gray and Harvey J. Greenberg, 17-30. Catonsville, Maryland: INFORMS, 2008.

“Match the Bags Again.” Barnett, Arnold I. Airport Innovation Vol. 1, No. 1 (2007.) (2007)

“Measure for Measure: An Analysis of Aviation-Safety Metrics." Barnett, Arnold I. (November 2007). AeroSafety World (Flight Safety Foundation).

“A Cure for the Electoral College?” Barnett, Arnold I. and Edward H. Kaplan. Chance, April 2007.

“How Effective is Security Screening for Airline Passengers?” Martonosi, Susan E. and Barnett, Arnold I. Interfaces Vol. 36, No. 6 (2006): 545-552. (2006)

“Airlines as Baseball Players: Another Approach to Evaluating Air Carrier Safety Records.” Czerwinski, David and Arnold I. Barnett. Management Science Vol. 52, No. 9 (2006): 1291-1300. (2006)

“O.R. Heroes on Flight 93.” Barnett, Arnold I. OR/MS Today (2006.) (2006)

“World Airline Safety: The Century So Far.” Barnett, Arnold I. Flight Safety Digest Vol. 33 (2006.) (2006)

“Effectiveness Analysis for Aviation-Safety Measures in the Absence of Actual Data.” Barnett, Arnold I. and Gary Paull. Air Traffic Control Quarterly Vol. 12, No. 3 (2004): 275-291. (2004)

“Terror is In the Air.” Barnett, Arnold I. and Susan E. Martonosi. Chance, December 2004.

“CAPPS II: The Foundation of Aviation Security?” Barnett, Arnold I. Risk Analysis Vol. 24, No. 4 (2004): 909-916. (2004)

“Aviation Security’s False Hope?” Barnett, Arnold I. MIT Technology Review, July 2003. 

“Dose Conversion from Epoetin alfa to Darbepoetin alfa for Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease Receiving Hemodialysis." Barnett, Arnold I. and Pierre Y. Cremieux. Pharmacotherapy Vol. 23, No. 5 (2003): 690-694. (2003)

“Trust No One at the Airport.” Barnett, Arnold I. (Feburary 2003). OR/MS TODAY.

“A New Approach to Estimating the Probability of Winning the Presidency.” Kaplan, Edward H. and Arnold I. Barnett. Operations Research Vol. 51, No. 1 (2003): 32-40. (2003)

“Bag Match: At Last.” Barnett, Arnold I. In Congressional Record. Washington DC: 2002. (2002)

“Anemia-Related Costs for Cancer Patients.” Barnett, Arnold I., Pierre Y. Cremieux, A. Mark Fendrick, Martine George and Mitchell Slavin. Journal of Managed Care Medicine Vol. 5, No. 12 (2001.)   (2001)

“The Worst Day Ever: September 11 and Commercial Aviation." Barnett, Arnold I. OR/MS TODAY Vol. 28, No. 6 (2001.) (2001)

“Air Safety: End of the Golden Age?” Barnett, Arnold I. Journal of the Operational Research Society Vol. 52, No. 8 (2001): 849-854. (2001)

“Safe at Home? An Experiment in Domestic Airline Security.” Barnett, Arnold I., Robert Shumsky, Mark Hansen, Amedeo Odoni and Geoffrey Gosling (March 2001). Operations Research, 49(2): 181-195.

“Airline Safety: The Recent Record.” Barnett, Arnold I. and Alexander Wang. FlighSafetDigesVol. 48, No. 6 (2000): 833-845.  (2000)

“Fatal US Runway Collisions Over the Next Two Decades." Barnett, Arnold I. , G. Paull and J. Iaedeluca. Air Traffic Control QuarterlVol. 8 No. 4 (2000): 833-845. (2000)

"Misused Statistics" Barnett, Arnold I. Chance, December 2000. 

“The Cost of Cancer to a Major Employer." Barnett, Arnold I., Howard Birnbaum, Pierre Y. Cremieux, A. Mark Fendrick and Mitchell Slavin. American Journal of Managed CarVol. 6, No. 11 (2000): 1243-1251. (2000)

“Free-Flight and En Route Air Safety: A First-Order Analysis." Barnett, Arnold I. Operations Research Vol. 48, No. 6 (2000): 833-845. (2000)

“It’s a Crime What Some People Do with Statistics." Barnett, Arnold I. The Wall Street Journal, August 2000.

"Foreword." Barnett, Arnold I. In Understanding Aviation Safety Data: Using the Internet and Other Sources to Analyze Air Travel Risk , edited by Todd Curtis. Warrendale, PA: Society of Automotive Engineers, 2000.

"Review of Capital Punishment: A Reader." Barnett, Arnold I. Review of Capital Punishment: A Reader, by Glen Stassen. Ethics, July 2000.

"Review of Misused Statistics." Barnett, Arnold I. Review of Misused Statistics, Herbert Spirer and Louise Spirer. Chance, March 2000.

“A Parallel Approach Path for Estimating Collision Risk during Simultaneous Landings.” Barnett, Arnold I. Management Science Vol. 45, No. 3 (1999): 382-394. (1999)

"Review of Cartographies of Danger." Barnett, Arnold I. Review of Cartographies of Danger. MIT Technology Review, October 1997.

Barnett, Arnold I. Review of Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets, by Donald B. Hausch, Victor S. Y. Lo and William T. Ziemba. Interfaces, January 1997.

“Safety in Numbers: Some Statistics about Plane Crashes and Their Consequences." Arnold I. Barnett. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Aviation Safety and Security in the 21st Century. Washington, DC: 1997. (1997)

“Crime and Justice Research." Barnett, Arnold I. and Michael Maltz. In Encyclopedia of Operations Research and the Management Sciences, edited by Saul I. Gass and Carl M. Harris. North Holland, Netherlands: Elsevier-North Holland, 1996.

“Beauty and the Beast: A Visit to South Africa.” Barnett, Arnold I. ROI (1996.) (1996)

“Building Equal Opportunity On Firmer Footing." Barnett, Arnold I. OR/MS TodaVol. 23, No. 4 (1996.) (1996)

“Valujet and Travel Safety." Arnold I. Barnett. Washington, DC: 1996.

“Good News is No News?” Barnett, Arnold I., and Jesse Goranson. Interfaces Vol. 26, No. 3 (1996): 35-39. (1996)

"Review of A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper." Barnett, Arnold I. Review of A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper, by John Allen Paulos. MIT Technology Review, February 1996.

“Jail Terms." Barnett, Arnold I. InterfaceVol.25, No. 2 (1995): 18-24. (1995)

“Race, IQ, Genetics and The Bell Curve." Barnett, Arnold I. and M. Maltz. OR/MS Today (1995.) (1995)

“Business Schools: Failing Fast?” Barnett, Arnold I. Interfaces Vol. 24 (1994.) (1994)

“Models Fail." Barnett, Arnold I. In Operations Research in the Public Sector, edited by S. Pollock and M. Rothkopf. Elsevier-North Holland, 1994.

“Something Specious in the Air? Some Statistical Misconceptions in Aviation Safety Research.” Barnett, Arnold I. Transportation Research Record Vol. 1423 (1994): 52-61. (1994)

“How Numbers Can Trick You: The Six Deadly Sins of Statistical Misrepresentation.” Barnett, Arnold I. Technology Review, October 1994. 

“Landings at Logan Airport: Describing and Increasing Airport Capacity.” Barnett, Arnold I., C.S. Venkatakrishnan and Amedeo Odoni. Transportation Science Vol. 27, No. 3 (1993): 211-227. (1993)

“The On-Time Machines: Some Analyses of Airline Punctuality.” Caulkins, Jonathan P., Arnold I. Barnett, Patrick D. Larkey, Yuehong Yuan and Jesse Goranson. Operations Research Vol. 41, No. 4 (1993): 710-720. (1993)

“The relation between experience and outcome in heart transplantation." Laffel, Glenn L., Arnold I. Barnett, Stan Finkelstein and Michael P. Kaye. New England Journal of Medicine Vol. 327, No. 7 (1992): 1220-1225. (1992)

“America's Vietnam Casualties:  Victims of a Class War?” Barnett, Arnold I., Timothy Stanley and Michael Shore. Operations ResearcVol. 40, N0. 5 (1992): 856-866. (1992)

“The Market Response to the Sioux City DC-10 Crash.” Barnett, Arnold I., John Menhigetti and Matthew Prete. Risk Analysis Vol. 12, No. 1 (1992): 45-52. (1992)

“Not All Criminal Career Models Are Equally Valid.” Barnett, Arnold I., Alfred Blumstein, Jacqueline Cohen and David P. Farrington. CriminologVol. 30, No. 1 (1992): 133-140. (1992)

 “Better than Ever: Nonstop Jet Service in an Era of Hubs and Spokes.” Barnett, Arnold I., Todd Curtis, Jesse Goranson, and Andrew Patrick (1992). Sloan Management Review, 33(2): 49-54. (1992)

“Smoke Signals.” Barnett, Arnold I. and Irwin Greenberg. Interfaces Vol. 21, No. 6 (1991): 96-102. (1991)

"An Unfortunate Pattern in U.S. Domestic Jet Crashes." Barnett, Arnold I. and Todd Curtis. Flight Safety DigesVol. 10, No. 10 (1991): 1-21. (1991)

“Review of Equal Justice and the Death Penalty." Barnett, Arnold I. Ethics Vol. 102, No. 1 (1991.) (1991)

“It's Safer to Fly.” Barnett, Arnold I. Risk Analysis Vol. 11, No. 1 (1991): 13-14. (1991)

“Air Safety: End of the Golden Age?” Barnett, Arnold I. Chance: New Directions for Statistics and Computing, December 1990

“Selecting the Nation's CEO: A Risk Assessment of the Electoral College.” Barnett, Arnold I. Journal of Managerial IssueVol. 2, No. 4 (1990): 357-370. (1990)

“Take the Bargain and Fly." Barnett, Arnold I. Advancing the Consumer Interest. Vol. 2, No. 1 (1990): 35-36. (1990)

“Rain Men.” Barnett, Arnold I. and Harvey Tress. Interfaces Vol. 20, No. 2 (1990): 42-47. (1990)

“A Prospective Test of a Criminal Careers Model." Barnett, Arnold I., Alfred Blumstein and David P. Farrington. CriminologVol. 27, No. 2 (1989): 373-388. (1989)

“Dealing with Autism.” Barnett, Arnold I. Interfaces Vol. 19, No. 3 (1989): 27-32. (1989)

“The Mystery of the Two-Faced Regression.” Barnett, Arnold I. and Peter Brownell. Interfaces Vol. 19, No. 2 (1989): 56-60. (1989)

“Urban Homicide: Still the Same.” Barnett, Arnold I. and Elliot Schwartz. Journal of Quantitative CriminologVol. 5, No. 1 (1989): 83-100. (1989)

“Airline Safety: The Last Decade.” Barnett, Arnold I. and Mary K. Higgins. Management Science Vol. 35, No. 1 (1989): 1-21. (1989)

“Heroin Crackdowns and Crime Rates: A Comment on the Kleiman Report and Two Massachusetts Experiments.” In Street-Level Drug Enforcement: Examining the Issues, National Institute of Justice, edited by Maria R. Chaiken, 37-46. Washington, DC: National Institute of Justice, 1988. (1988)

“Prediction and Criminology." Barnett, Arnold I. International Journal of Forecasting Vol. 4, No. 2 (1988): 292-294. (1988)

“Crime News." Barnett, Arnold I. Interfaces Vol. 18, No. 3 (1988): 110-115. (1988)

“Thunderstorms and Aviation Safety: A Dialogue." Machol, Robert E. and Arnold I. Barnett. Interfaces Vol. 18, No. 2 (1988): 20-27. (1988)

“Wind Shear: Down but not Out.” Barnett, Arnold I. (Summer 1988). MIT Management, 18.

“Lightning Strikes Twice." Barnett, Arnold I. Interfaces Vol. 17, No. 2 (1987): 21-26. (1987)

“Prison Populations: A Projection Model." Barnett, Arnold I. Operations Research Vol. 35, No. 1 (1987): 18-34. (1987)

“Probabilistic Models of Youthful Criminal Careers." Barnett, Arnold I., Alfred Blumstein and David P. Farrington. CriminologVol. 25, No. 1 (1987): 83-107. (1987)

“Ice Follies.” Barnett, Arnold I. Interfaces Vol. 16, No. 4 (1986): 91-95. (1986)

“On the Optimal Allocation of Prison Space.” Barnett, Arnold I., and A.J. Lofaso. In Delivery of Urban Services: With a View Towards Applications in Management Science and Operations Research, edited by Arthur J. Swersey and Edward J. Ignall, 245-268. North Holland, Netherlands: Elsevier North Holland Press, 1986.

“Speed Kills?” Barnett, Arnold I. (1986). Interfaces, 16(2): 63-68. (1986)

“Before the Fall." Barnett, Arnold I. Interfaces Vol. 15, No. 6 (1985): 60-65. (1985)

“Model-Based U.S. Prison Population Projections." Rich, Thomas F. and Arnold I. Barnett. Public Administration RevieVol. 45 (1985): 780-789. (1985)

“Birth and Death Processes.” Barnett, Arnold I. Interfaces Vol. 15, No. 4 (1985): 34-38. (1985)

“Some Distribution Patterns for the Georgia Death Sentence." Barnett, Arnold I. U.C. Davis Law Review Vol. 18, No. 4 (1985): 1327-1374. (1985)

“Selective Incapacitation and the Philadelphia Cohort Data." Barnett, Arnold I. and Anthony J. Lofaso. Journal of Quantitative CriminologVol. 34, No. 1 (1985): 3-36. (1985)

“The Parable of the Red Line." Barnett, Arnold I. and Anthony Sapanaro. Interfaces Vol. 15, No. 2 (1985): 33-39. (1985)

“Newswatch." Barnett, Arnold I. Interfaces Vol. 14, No. 6 (1984): 39-43. . (1984)

“Hinckley and the Chemical Bath." Barnett, Arnold I., Irwin Greenberg and Robert E. Machol. Interfaces Vol. 14, No. 4 (1984): 48-52. (1984)

“Mea Culpa." Barnett, Arnold I. Interfaces Vol. 14, No. 2 (1984): 24-28. (1984)

“After the Crash: The Passenger Response to the DC-10 Disaster." Barnett, Arnold I. and Anthony J. Lofaso. Management Science Vol. 29, No. 11 (1983): 1125-36. (1983)

“The Capital Punishment Controversy: Part II.” Barnett, Arnold I. Interfaces Vol. 13, No. 5 (1983): 1335-1339. (1983)

“The Capital Punishment Controversy: Part I." Barnett, Arnold I. Interfaces Vol. 13, No. 3 (1983): 24-28. (1983)

“The Linear Model and Some of Its Friends." Barnett, Arnold I. Interfaces Vol. 13, No. 1 (1983): 61-65 (1983)

“An Underestimated Threat to Multiple-Regression Analyses Used in Job Discrimination Cases.” Barnett, Arnold I. Industrial Relations Law Journal Vol. 5, No. 1 (1982): 156-173. (1982)

“Learning to Live with Homicide: A Research Note" Barnett, Arnold I. Journal of Criminal Justice Vol. 10, No. 1 (1982): 69-72. (1982)

“A Quartile Test for Differences in Distribution.” Barnett, Arnold I. and Ellen Eisen. Journal of the American Statistical AssociatioVol. 77, No. 377 (1982): 44-51. (1982)

“The Decision Between Single and Combined Modality Therapy in Hodgkin's Disease.” Cynthia J. Rutherford, Jane DesForges, Arnold I. Barnett, Charles Safran and Byron Davies. American Journal of MedicinVol. 72, No. 1 (1982): 63-70. (1982)

“Evaluating the Validity of a Bayesian Model of Predicting Stage in Hodgkin's Disease.” Barnett, Arnold I., Cynthia J. Rutherford, Jane F. DesForges, N. Gutensohn and Byron Davies. Methods of Information in Medicine Vol. 20, No. 3 (1981): 174-178. (1981)

“Further Standards of Accountability for Deterrence Research.” Barnett, Arnold I. In Methods in Quantitative Criminology, edited by James Alan Fox, 127-145. Waltham, MA: Academic Press, 1981.

"Latency Period: Estimating the Time from the Induction to the Appearance of Cancer." Arnold I. Barnett. Washington, DC: 1981.

“The Dose-Response Relationship:  What is Its Form at Low Levels?” Arnold I. Barnett. Washington, DC: 1981. 

“The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: A Test of Some Recent Studies.” Barnett, Arnold I. Operations Research Vol. 29, No. 2 (1981): 346-370. (1981)

“Urban Homicide: Some Recent Developments.” Barnett, Arnold I., Ellen Essenfeld and Daniel J. Kleitman. Journal of Criminal Justice Vol. 8, No. 6 (1980): 379-385. (1980)

“On the Sequential Search for Spatially-Distributed Events.” Barnett, Arnold I. and John Mazzarino. SIAM Journal on Algebraic and Discrete Methods Vol. 1, No. 1 (1980): 82-91. (1980)

“The Decision to Perform Staging Laparotomy in Symptomatic Hodgkin's Disease,” Cynthia J. Rutherford, Jane F. Desforges, Byron Davies and Arnold I. Barnett. British Journal of Hematology Vol. 44, No. 3 (1980): 347-358. (1980)

“National Evaluation Program: Streetlighting Projects.” James M. Tien, Vincent F. O'Donnell, Arnold I. Barnett and Pitu B. Mirchandani. Washington, D.C: 1979.

“Airline Safety: Some Empirical Findings.” Barnett, Arnold I., Michael Abraham, and Victor Schimmel. Management Science Vol. 25, No. 11 (1979): 1045-1056. (1979)

"On Two-Terminal Control of a Shuttle Service." Barnett, Arnold I. and Daniel J. Kleitman. SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics Vol. 35, No. 2 (1978): 229-234. (1978)

“A Statistical Procedure for Testing Nuclear-Powered Cardiac Pacemakers.” Barnett, Arnold I., Daniel J. Kleitman, D. Rosenbaum and B. Singer. Technometrics Vol. 20, No. 3 (1978): 221-226. (1978)

“Optimal Control of the B/B/C Queue." Barnett, Arnold I. Interfaces Vol. 8, No. 4 (1978): 49-52. (1978)

“Some Optimization Problems with Bulk-Service Queues.” Barnett, Arnold I. and Daniel J. Kleitman. Studies in Applied Mathematics Vol. 58, No. 3 (1978): 277-290. (1978)

“Control Strategies for Transport Systems with Nonlinear Waiting Costs.” Barnett, Arnold I. Transportation Science Vol. 12, No. 2 (1978): 119-136. (1978)

“Crime and Capital Punishment: Some Recent Studies.” Barnett, Arnold I. Journal of Criminal JusticVo. 6, No. 4 (1978): 291-303. (1978)

“Improved Interpretation and Analysis of Criminal Justice Statistics." Barnett, Arnold I., Richard C. Larson and Amedeo Odoni. In Performance Measures and the Criminal Justice System: Four Conceptual Approaches.Washington, DC: U.S. Dept. of Justice, Law Enforcement Assistance Administration, October 1976.

“On Searching for Events of Limited Duration.” Barnett, Arnold I. Operations ResearcVol. 24, No. 3 (1976): 438-451. (1976)

“More on a Market Share Theorem.” Barnett, Arnold I. Journal of Marketing ResearcVol. 13, No. 1 (1976): 104-109. (1976)

 “On Urban Homicide: A Statistical Analysis.” Barnett, Arnold I., Daniel J. Kleitman and Richard C. Larson. Journal of Criminal JusticVol. 3, No. 2 (1975): 85-110. (1975)

“On Controlling Randomness in Transit Operations.” Barnett, Arnold I. Transportation Science Vol. 8, No. 2 (1974): 85-102. (1974)

“On Operating a Shuttle Service." Barnett, Arnold I. Networks Vol. 3, No. 4 (1973): 305-313. (1973)

“Urban Violence and Risk to the Individual.” Barnett, Arnold I. and Daniel J. Kleitman. Journal of Research in Crime and DelinquencVol. 10, No. 2 (1973): 110-116. (1973)

“On Scheduling Some Transport Systems with Discrete-Time Passenger Arrivals.” Barnett, Arnold I. Studies in Applied Mathematics Vol. 52, No. 1 (1973): 75-86. (1973)

“Optimal Scheduling Policies for Some Simple Transportation Systems.” Barnett, Arnold I. and Daniel J. Kleitman. Transportation Science Vol. 7, No. 1 (1973): 85-99. (1973)


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Air safety; Operations management; Operations research; Operations research; Statistics