Arnold Barnett

George Eastman Professor of Management Science
Professor of Statistics

Biography | Selected Publications

“Aviation Safety and Security." Barnett, Arnold I. Chapter 12 in Belobaba, Peter, Amedeo Odoni, and Cynthia Barnhard (eds.) The Global Airline Industry, John Wiley & Sons, Forthcoming.

“Has Successful Terror Gone to Ground?” Barnett, Arnold I. Risk Analysis.

“The Loss of Malaysia Flight 370: What It Means and Doesn’t Mean.” Barnett, Arnold I. Analytics. Forthcoming.

Applied Probability: Models and Intuition. Barnett, Arnold I. Dynamic Ideas Press, LLC. 2015.

Applied Statistics: Models and Intuition. Barnett, Arnold I. Dynamic Ideas Press. 2015.

"Review of Performance Measurement in the Public Sector: Principles and Practices.” Barnett, Arnold I. Interfaces, January 2014.

“Moving Up: Five More Years of Aviation Safety." Barnett, Arnold I. Aerosafety World, December 2013.

“Why You Won’t Die in a Plane Crash." Barnett, Arnold I. CNN Opinion, August 10, 2013.

“Did Nate Silver Beat the Tortoise?” Barnett, Arnold I. (January 2013). Analytics.

“Southwest Jet Rupture and Flight Risk." Barnett, Arnold I. (2011). CNN Opinion. (2011)

“Aviation Safety and Security." Barnett, Arnold I. (March 2011). Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and the Management Sciences.

Southwest Jet Rupture and Flight Risk (2011)

“Use Body Scan Machines." Barnett, Arnold I. (2010). Room for Debate Blog, The New York Times, December 28, 2009. (2010)

“Resist the Complainers." Barnett, Arnold I. (2010). Room for Debate Blog, The New York Times, November 23, 2010.

“Cross-National Differences in Aviation Safety Records." Barnett, Arnold I. (August 2010). Transportation Science, 44(3), 322-332.

Aviation Safety and Security (2010)

Cross-National Differences in Aviation Safety Records (2010)

The North Airfield Safety Study, Los Angeles International Airport (2010)

Aviation Safety and Security." Barnett, Arnold I. Chapter 11 in Belobaba, Peter, Amedeo Odoni, and Cynthia Barnhard (eds.) The Global Airline Industry, John Wiley & Sons, 2009, pp. 313-342. 

“Selecting the Nation’s CEO: A Risk Assessment of the Electoral College.” Barnett, Arnold I. (Winter 2009). Journal of Managerial Issues, 21(4): 447-460.

"Is It Really Safe To Fly?” Barnett, Arnold I. Chapter 2 in Tutorials in Operations Research 2008, (Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences). 2008.

“Measure for Measure: An Analysis of Aviation-Safety Metrics." Barnett, Arnold I. (November 2007). AeroSafety World (Flight Safety Foundation).

“A Cure for the Electoral College?” Barnett, Arnold I., and Edward H. Kaplan (Spring 2007). Chance (American Statistical Association), 20(2): 6-9.

“Match the Bags Again.” Barnett, Arnold I. (April 2007). Airport Innovation. Inaugural Issue.

Measure for Measure: An Analysis of Aviation-Safety Metrics (2007)

“How Effective is Security Screening for Airline Passengers?” Martonosi, Susan E., and Barnett, Arnold I. (November 2006). Interfaces, 36(6): 545-552.

“Airlines as Baseball Players: Another Approach to Evaluating Air Carrier Safety Records.” Czerwinski, David, and Arnold I. Barnett (September 2006). Management Science, 52(9): 1291-1300.

“O.R. Heroes on Flight 93.” Barnett, Arnold I. (2006). OR/MS TODAY, August 2006.

“World Airline Safety: The Century So Far.” Barnett, Arnold I. (2006). Flight Safety Digest, 33. (2006)

“CAPPS II: The Foundation of Aviation Security?” Barnett, Arnold I. (August 2004). Risk Analysis, 24(4): 909-916.

“Effectiveness Analysis for Aviation-Safety Measures in the Absence of Actual Data.” Barnett, Arnold I., and Gary Paull (Fall 2004). Air Traffic Control Quarterly, 12(3).

“Terror is In the Air.” Barnett, Arnold I., and Susan E. Martonosi (2004). Chance, American Statistical Association, 18. (2004)

“Aviation Security’s False Hope?” Barnett, Arnold I. (May 2003). MIT Technology Insider

“Trust No One at the Airport.” Barnett, Arnold I. (Feburary 2003). OR/MS TODAY.

“A New Approach to Estimating the Probability of Winning the Presidency.” Kaplan, Edward H., and Arnold I. Barnett (2003). Operations Research, 51(1): 32-40. (2003)

“Dose Conversion from Epoetin alfa to Darbepoetin alfa for Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease Receiving Hemodialysis." Barnett, Arnold I., and Pierre Y. Cremieux (2003). Pharmacotherapy,. (2003)

“Bag Match: At Last.” Barnett, Arnold I. (2002). Congressional Record, January 23, 2002.

“The Worst Day Ever: September 11 and Commercial Aviation." Barnett, Arnold I. (December 2011). OR/MS TODAY. (2001)

“Air Safety: End of the Golden Age?” Barnett, Arnold I. (August 2001). Journal of the Operational Research Society, 52(8): 849-854.

“Safe at Home? An Experiment in Domestic Airline Security.” Barnett, Arnold I., Robert Shumsky, Mark Hansen, Amedeo Odoni, and Geoffrey Gosling (March 2001). Operations Research, 49(2): 181-195.

“Anemia-Related Costs for Cancer Patients.” Barnett, Arnold I., Pierre Y. Cremieux, A. Mark Fendrick, Martine George, and Mitchell Slavin (2001). Journal of Managed Care Medicine, 5(12). (2001)

“Free-Flight and En Route Air Safety: A First-Order Analysis." Barnett, Arnold I. (November 2000). Operations Research, 48(6): 833-845.

“It’s a Crime What Some People Do with Statistics." Barnett, Arnold I. The Wall Street Journal. (2000)

Barnett, Arnold I. (March 2000). Review of Misused Statistics, Chance, March 2000, Volume 14.

“Airline Safety: The Recent Record.” Barnett, Arnold I., and Alexander Wang (April 2000). FlighSafetDigest.

“Fatal US Runway Collisions Over the Next Two Decades." Barnett, A. I., G. Paull, and J. Iaedeluca (2000). Air Traffic Control Quarterly, 8(4): 833-845. (2000)

Barnett, Arnold I. (2000). Foreword to Understanding Aviation Safety Data, SAE. (2000)

It’s a Crime What Some People Do with Statistics (2000)

Misused Statistics (2000)

Barnett, Arnold I. (2000). Review of Capital Punishment: A Reader. Ethics, July 2000.

“The Cost of Cancer to a Major Employer." Barnett, Arnold I., Howard Birnbaum, Pierre Y. Cremieux, A. Mark Fendrick, and Mitchell Slavin (November 2000). American Journal of Managed Care, 6(11): 1243-1251.

“A Parallel Approach Path for Estimating Collision Risk during Simultaneous Landings.” Barnett, Arnold I. (March 1999). Management Science, 45(3): 382-394.

Barnett, Arnold I. (October 1997). Review of Cartographies of Danger, Technology Review.

Barnett, Arnold I. (January 1997). Review of Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets, Interfaces, 27.

“Safety in Numbers: Some Statistics about Plane Crashes and Their Consequences." Proceedings of the International Conference on Aviation Safety and Security in the 21st Century, sponsored by the White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security, January 1997.

“Beauty and the Beast: A Visit to South Africa.” Barnett, Arnold I. (October 1996). ROI.

“The Affirmative Action Debate." Barnett, Arnold I. (August 1996). OR/MS Today.

“Valujet and Travel Safety." Barnett, Arnold I. Report contained within written testimony of Valujet President Lewis Jordan to Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, U.S. House of Representatives, June 1996.

“Good News is No News?” Barnett, Arnold I., and Jesse Goranson (May 1996). Interfaces, 26(3): 35-39.

Barnett, Arnold I (February 1996). Review of A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper, Technology Review.

“Crime and Justice Research." Barnett, Arnold I., and Michael Maltz. In Gass, Saul I., and Carl M. Harris (eds.) Encyclopedia of Operations Research and the Management Sciences, Elsevier-North Holland, 1996.

“How Safe is This Flight?” Newsweek, April 24, 1995.

“Jail Terms." Barnett, Arnold I. (March 1995). Interfaces, 25(2): 18-24

“Race, IQ, Genetics and The Bell Curve." Barnett, Arnold I (February 1995). OR/MS Today.

“How Numbers Can Trick You: The Six Deadly Sins of Statistical Misrepresentation.” Barnett, Arnold I. (October 1994). Technology Review, 97(7): 38-45.

“Business Schools: Failing Fast?” Barnett, Arnold I. (March 1994). Interfaces, 24.

“Models Fail." Barnett, Arnold I. Chapter 3 in Pollock, S., A. Barnett, and M. Rothkopf (eds.) Operations Research in the Public Sector, Elsevier-North Holland, 1994.

“Something Specious in the Air? Some Statistical Misconceptions in Aviation Safety Research.” Barnett, Arnold I. (1994). Transportation Research Record, #1423, 52-61. (1994)

“The On-Time Machines: Some Analyses of Airline Punctuality.” Caulkins, Jonathan P., Arnold I. Barnett, Patrick D. Larkey, Yuehong Yuan, and Jesse Goranson (July 1993) Operations Research, 41(4): 710-720

“Landings at Logan Airport: Describing and Increasing Airport Capacity.” Barnett, Arnold I., C.S. Venkatakrishnan, and Amedeo Odoni (July 1993). Transportation Science, 27(3): 211-227.

“The relation between experience and outcome in heart transplantation." Laffel, Glenn L., Arnold I. Barnett, Stan Finkelstein, and Michael P. Kaye (October 1992). New England Journal of Medicine, 327(7): 1220-1225.

“America's Vietnam Casualties:  Victims of a Class War?” Barnett, Arnold I., Timothy Stanley, and Michael Shore (October 1992). Operations Research, 40(5): 856-866.

“The Market Response to the Sioux City DC-10 Crash.” Barnett, Arnold I., John Menhigetti, and Matthew Prete (March 1992). Risk Analysis, 12(1): 45-52.

 “Better than Ever: Nonstop Jet Service in an Era of Hubs and Spokes.” Barnett, Arnold I., Todd Curtis, Jesse Goranson, and Andrew Patrick (1992). Sloan Management Review, 33(2): 49-54. (1992)

“Not All Criminal Career Models Are Equally Valid.” Barnett, Arnold I., Alfred Blumstein, Jacqueline Cohen, and David P. Farrington (February 1992). Criminology, 30(1): 133-140.

“Smoke Signals.” Barnett, Arnold I., and Irwin Greenberg (November 1991). Interfaces, 21(6): 96-102.

“Review of Equal Justice and the Death Penalty." Barnett, Arnold I. (October 1991). Ethics, 102(1).

“It's Safer to Fly.” Barnett, Arnold I. (March 1991). Risk Analysis, 11(1): 13-14

An Unfortunate Pattern in U.S. Domestic Jet Crashes." Barnett, Arnold I., and Todd Curtis (October 1991). Flight Safety Digest, 10(10), 1-21.

“Take the Bargain and Fly." Barnett, Arnold I. (April 1990). Advancing the Consumer Interest.

“Rain Men.” Barnett, Arnold I., and Harvey Tress (1990). Interfaces, 20(2): 42-47. (1990)

“Air Safety: End of the Golden Age?” Barnett, Arnold I. (1990). Chance: New Directions for Statistics and Computing, 3(2): 8-13. (1990)

“Selecting the Nation's CEO: A Risk Assessment of the Electoral College.” Barnett, Arnold I. (1990). Journal of Managerial Issues, 21(4): 357-370. (1990)

“Dealing with Autism.” Barnett, Arnold I. (May 1989). Interfaces, 19(3): 27-32.

“Urban Homicide: Still the Same.” Barnett, Arnold I., and Elliot Schwartz (March 1989). Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 5(1): 83-100.

“A Prospective Test of a Criminal Careers Model." Barnett, Arnold I., Alfred Blumstein, and David P. Farrington (May 1989). Criminology, 27(2): 373-388.

“Airline Safety: The Last Decade.” Barnett, Arnold I., and Mary K. Higgins (January 1989). Management Science, 35(1): 1-21.

“The Mystery of the Two-Faced Regression.” Barnett, Arnold I., and Peter Brownell (1989). Interfaces, 19(2): 56-60. (1989)

“Review of Prediction and Criminology." Barnett, Arnold I. (June 1988). In Farrington and Tarling (eds.) International Journal of Forecasting.

“Crime News." Barnett, Arnold I. (1988). Interfaces, 18(3): 110-115. (1988)

“Heroin Crackdowns and Crime Rates: A Comment on the Kleiman Report and Two Massachusetts Experiments.” Chapter 3 in Marcia R. Chaiken (ed.) Street-Level Drug Enforcement: Examining the Issues, National Institute of Justice, August 1988, pp. 37-46.

“Thunderstorms and Aviation Safety: A Dialogue." Machol, Robert E., and Arnold I. Barnett (1988). Interfaces, 18(2): 20-27. (1988)

“Wind Shear: Down but not Out.” Barnett, Arnold I. (Summer 1988). MIT Management, 18.

“Lightning Strikes Twice." Barnett, Arnold I. (1987). Interfaces, 17(2): 21-26. (1987)

“Prison Populations: A Projection Model." Barnett, Arnold I. (1987). Operations Research, 35(1): 18-34. (1987)

“Probabilistic Models of Youthful Criminal Careers." Barnett, Arnold I., Alfred Blumstein, and David P. Farrington (1987). Criminology, 25(1): 83-107. (1987)

“Ice Follies.” Barnett, Arnold I. (1986). Interfaces, 16(4): 91-95. (1986)

“On the Optimal Allocation of Prison Space.” Barnett, Arnold I., and A.J. Lofaso. Chapter 12 of Delivery of Urban Services: With a View Towards Applications in Management Science and Operations Research, Elsevier North Holland Press, pp. 245-268, 1986.

“Speed Kills?” Barnett, Arnold I. (1986). Interfaces, 16(2): 63-68. (1986)

“Before the Fall." Barnett, Arnold I. (1985). Interfaces, 15(6): 60-65. (1985)

“Model-Based U.S. Prison Population Projections." Rich, Thomas F., and Arnold I. Barnett (November 1985). Public Administration Review, 45: 780-789.

“Birth and Death Processes.” Barnett, Arnold I. (1985). Interfaces, 15(4): 34-38. (1985)

“Selective Incapacitation and the Philadelphia Cohort Data." Barnett, Arnold I., and Anthony J. Lofaso (1985). Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 1(1): 3-36. (1985)

“The Parable of the Red Line." Barnett, Arnold I., and Anthony Sapanaro (1985). Interfaces, 15(2): 33-39. (1985)

“Some Distribution Patterns for the Georgia Death Sentence." Barnett, Arnold I (1985). U.C. Davis Law Review, 18(4): 1327-1374. (1985)

“Hinckley and the Chemical Bath." Barnett, Arnold I., Irwin Greenberg, and Robert E. Machol (1984). Interfaces, 14(4): 48-52. (1984)

“Mea Culpa." Barnett, Arnold I. (1984). Interfaces, 14(2): 24-28. (1984)

First-Degree Murder and the Death Sentence in Georgia (1984)

“Newswatch." Barnett, Arnold I (1984). Interfaces, 14(6): 39-43. . (1984)

Selective Incapacitation and the Philadelphia Cohort Data (1984)

“After the Crash: The Passenger Response to the DC-10 Disaster." Barnett, Arnold I., and Anthony J. Lofaso (1983). Management Science, 29(11): 1125-36. (1983)

“The Capital Punishment Controversy: Part II.” Barnett, Arnold I. (1983). Interfaces, 13(5): 1335-1339. (1983)

“The Capital Punishment Controversy: Part I." Barnett, Arnold I. (June 1983). Interfaces, 13(3): 24-28.

“The Linear Model and Some of Its Friends." Barnett, Arnold I. (February 1983). Interfaces 13(1): 61-65

“A Quartile Test for Differences in Distribution.” Barnett, Arnold I., and Ellen Eisen (1982). Journal of the American Statistical Association, 77(377): 44-51. (1982)

“An Underestimated Threat to Multiple-Regression Analyses Used in Job Discrimination Cases.” Barnett, Arnold I. (1982). Industrial Relations Law Journal 5(1): 156-173. (1982)

“Learning to Live with Homicide: A Research Note" Barnett, Arnold I. (1982). Journal of Criminal Justice, 10: 69-72. (1982)

“The Decision Between Single and Combined Modality Therapy in Hodgkin's Disease.” Cynthia J. Rutherford, Jane DesForges, Arnold I. Barnett, Charles Safran, and Byron Davies (February 1982). American Journal of Medicine, 72(1): 63-70.

“The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: A Test of Some Recent Studies.” Barnett, Arnold I. (March-April 1981). Operations Research, 29(2): 346-370.

“Evaluating the Validity of a Bayesian Model of Predicting Stage in Hodgkin's Disease.” Barnett, Arnold I., Cynthia J. Rutherford, Jane F. DesForges, N. Gutensohn, and Byron Davies (1981). Methods of Information in Medicine, 20(3): 174-178. (1981)

Evaluating the Validity of a Bayesian Model of Predicting Stage in Hodgkin's Disease (1981)

“Further Standards of Accountability for Deterrence Research.” Barnett, Arnold I. In J. Fox (ed.) Chapter 7 of Methods in Quantitative Criminology. Academic Press (1981), pp. 127-145. (1981)

"Latency Period: Estimating the Time from the Induction to the Appearance of Cancer." Barnett, Arnold I. In Problems in Assessing the Cancer Risks of Low-Level Ionizing Radiation Exposure, Report EMD-81-1 to the Congress of the United States, U.S. General Accounting Office, 1981, pp.12-1 to 12-18.

“The Dose-Response Relationship:  What is Its Form at Low Levels?” Barnett, Arnold I. In Problems in Assessing the Cancer Risks of Low-Level Ionizing Radiation Exposure, Report EMD-81-1 to the Congress of the United States, U.S. General Accounting Office, 1981, pp. 11-1 to 11-34 and 12-1 to 12-18.

“On the Sequential Search for Spatially-Distributed Events.” Barnett, Arnold I., and John Mazzarino (March 1980). SIAM Journal on Algebraic and Discrete Methods, 1(1): 82-91.

“The Decision to Perform Staging Laparotomy in Symptomatic Hodgkin's Disease,” Cynthia J. Rutherford, Jane F. Desforges, Byron Davies, and Arnold I. Barnett (1980). British Journal of Hematology, 44(3): 347-358. (1980)

“Urban Homicide: Some Recent Developments.” Barnett, Arnold I., Ellen Essenfeld, and Daniel J. Kleitman (1980). Journal of Criminal Justice, 8(6): 379-385. (1980)

“Airline Safety: Some Empirical Findings.” Barnett, Arnold I., Michael Abraham, and Victor Schimmel (November 1979). Management Science, 25(11): 1045-1056.

“National Evaluation Program: Streetlighting Projects.” Tien, James M., Vincent F. O'Donnell, Arnold I. Barnett, and Pitu B. Mirchandani (1979) U. S. Government Printing Office #281-380-1551, Washington, D.C. (1979)

“A Statistical Procedure for Testing Nuclear-Powered Cardiac Pacemakers.” Barnett, Arnold I., Daniel J. Kleitman, D. Rosenbaum, and B. Singer (August 1978). Technometrics, 20(3): 221-226.

“Optimal Control of the B/B/C Queue." Barnett, Arnold I (August 1978). Interfaces, 8(4): 49-52.

“Control Strategies for Transport Systems with Nonlinear Waiting Costs.” Barnett, Arnold I. (May 1978). Transportation Science, 12(2): 119-136.

“Crime and Capital Punishment: Some Recent Studies.” Barnett, Arnold I. (1978). Journal of Criminal Justice, 6(4): 291-303. (1978)

"On Two-Terminal Control of a Shuttle Service." Barnett, Arnold I., and Daniel J. Kleitman (1978). SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics, 35(2): 229-234. (1978)

“Some Optimization Problems with Bulk-Service Queues.” Barnett, Arnold I., and Daniel J. Kleitman (Fall 1978). Studies in Applied Mathematics, 277-290.

“On Searching for Events of Limited Duration.” Barnett, Arnold I. (May-June 1976). Operations Research, 24(3): 438-451.

“More on a Market Share Theorem.” Barnett, Arnold I. (February 1976). Journal of Marketing Research, 13(1): 104-109.

“Improved Interpretation and Analysis of Criminal Justice Statistics." Barnett, Arnold I., Richard C. Larson, and Amedeo Odoni (1976). In Performance Measures and the Criminal Justice System: Four Conceptual Approaches, U.S. Dept. of Justice, Law Enforcement Assistance Administration, October 1976.

More on a Market Share Theorem (1975)

 “On Urban Homicide: A Statistical Analysis.” Barnett, Arnold I., Daniel J. Kleitman, and Richard C. Larson (1975). Journal of Criminal Justice, 3(2): 85-110. (1975)

“On Controlling Randomness in Transit Operations.” Barnett, Arnold I. (May 1974). Transportation Science, 8(2): 85-102.

“On Operating a Shuttle Service." Barnett, Arnold I. (1973). Networks, 3(4): 305-313. (1973)

“Urban Violence and Risk to the Individual.” Barnett, Arnold I., and Daniel J. Kleitman (1973). Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 10(2): 110-116. (1973)

“Optimal Scheduling Policies for Some Simple Transportation Systems.” Barnett, Arnold I., and Daniel J. Kleitman (1973). Transportation Science, 7(1): 85-99. (1973)

“On Scheduling Some Transport Systems with Discrete-Time Passenger Arrivals.” Barnett, Arnold I. (1973). Studies in Applied Mathematics, pp. 75-86. (1973)


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