Biography | Selected Publications
"The Future of the (U.S.) Electric Grid," in R. Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, Edward Elgar, Northampton, MA. (April 30, 2013)
"Scenarios with MIT Integrated Global Systems Model: Significant Global Warming Regardless of Different Approaches," Climatic Change, Vol. 104, Issue 3-4 (February 2011): pp. 515-537.
"The Future of U.S. Natural Gas Production, Use, and Trade," Energy Policy, Vol.38, Issue 9 (September 2011): pp. 5309-5321
"The Influence of Shale Gas on U.S. Energy and Environmental Policy," Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy, Vol.1, Issue 1 (2011): pp. 37-52 (2011)
"What to Expect from Sectoral Trading: a US-China Example," Climate Change Economics, Vol. 2, no. 1 (Feb. 2011), pp. 6-26.
"Sharing the Burden of GHG Reductions," in J. Aldy and R. Stavins (eds), Post-Kyoto International Climate Policy: Implementing International Architectures for Agreement, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK, 2010.
"Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (without Policy) and Climate Parameters," Journal of Climate, Vol 22, Issue 19 (October 2009): pp. 5175-5204.
"The Coal Sector Under Carbon Constraints," Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 31, Issue 3 (May-June 2009): pp. 404-424.
"The Cost of Climate Policy in the United States," Energy Economics, Vol.31, Supplement 2 (December 2009): pp. S235-S243.
"Uncertainties in Climate Stabilization," Climatic Change Vol. 97, Issue 1-2 (November 2009): pp. 85-121.
Transportation in a Climate-Constrained World, The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2009.
"Assessment of U.S. GHG Cap-and-Trade Proposals," Climate Policy, Vol. 8, Issue 4 (2008): pp. 395-420. (2008)
"Cost Containment: A Primer," in A.D. Ellerman, M. Webster, J. Parsons, H. Jacoby and M. McGuiness, Cap-and-Trade: Contributions to the Design of a U.S. Greenhouse Gas Program, MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Cambridge MA (2008). (2008)
"Uncertainty in Greenhouse Emissions and Costs of Atmospheric Stabilization," Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Report #165, November (2008). (2008)
"Climate Change Taxes and Energy Efficiency in Japan," Environmental and Resource Economics, Vol. 37, Issue 2 (June 2007): pp. 377-410.
"Climate Favela," in J. Aldy and R. Stavins (eds.), Architectures for Agreement: Addressing Global Climate Change In the Post-Kyoto World, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK (2007): Chapter 6.2, pp.270-279. (2007)
"Future carbon regulations and current investments in alternative coal-fired power plant technologies," Energy Policy, Vol. 35, Issue 2 (February 2007): pp. 1064-1074.
"How (and why) do climate policy costs differ among countries?" in M.E. Schlesinger, H.S. Kheshgi, J. Smith, F.C. de la Chesnaye, J.M. Reilly, T. Wilson, and C. Kolstad (eds.), Human-Induced Climate Change: An Interdisciplinary Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK: Chapter 24, pp.282-293. (2007)
"The Future of Coal: Options for a Carbon-Constrained World," an interdisciplinary MIT study, Cambridge, MA (2007). (2007)
U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1A: Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (L. Clark, J. Edmonds, H. Jacoby, H. Pitcher, J. Reilly, R. Richels), July. (http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-1/default.php). (2007)
"Technology and Technical Change in the MIT EPPA Model," Energy Economics Vol. 28, Issues 5-6 (November 2006): pp. 610-631.
"Getting Climate Policy on Track After The Hague: An Update," in R. Wilkinson (ed.), The Global Governance Reader, Routledge, New York, 2005: pp. 274-291
"Modeling the Transport Sector: The Role of Existing Fuel Taxes in Climate Policy," in R. Loulou et al. (eds.), Energy and Environment, Springer, Montreal: pp. 211-239. (2005)
"Technology Detail in a Multi-Sector CGE Model: Transport Under Climate Policy," Energy Economics Vol. 27, Issue 1 (january 2005): pp.1-24.
"Vehicle Technology Under CO2 Constraint: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Energy Policy Vol. 34, Issue 9 (June 2006): pp. 975-985. (2005)
"What it Nature Worth?” Proceedings of the First Abraham Kuyper Consultation "Common Grace: Theology, Ecology, and Technology," Princeton Theological Seminary, February 2, 2002.
"Mileage hikes may fail without emissions cap," The Detroit News, 21 June 2001.
Getting Climate Policy on Track after The Hague, International Affairs Vol.77, Issue 2 (April 2001): pp. 297-312.
"The Kyoto Protocol and Developing Countries, Effects of Differentiating Climate Policy by Sector: A U.S. Example." Proceedings of the IPCC Expert Meeting on Sectoral Economic Costs and Benefits of GHG Mitigation, Eisenach, Germany, 12-14 February 2000.
"Developing Country Effects of Kyoto-Type Emissions Restrictions," in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Proceedings of IPCC Expert Meeting on Economic Impact of Mitigation Measures, The Hague, The Netherlands, 27-28 May. (1999)
"Integrated Global System Model for Climate Policy Assessment: Feedbacks and Sensitivity Studies," Climatic Change, Vol. 41 Issue 3/4,(March 1999): pp. 469-546.
"Multi-Gas Assessment of the Kyoto Protocol," Nature, Volume401, Issue 6753 (7 October 1999): pp. 549-555.
"Necessary Conditions for Stabilization Agreements," in C. Carraro (ed.), International Environmental Agreements on Climate Change, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Lancaster, UK. (1999)
Sequential Climate Decisions under Uncertainty: An Integrated Framework, Journal of Environmental Modeling and Assessment 4: 87-101 (1999)
The Kyoto Protocol and developing countries, Energy Policy 28: 525-536. (1999)
The Uses and Misuses of Technology Development as a Component of Climate Policy, in Climate Change Policy: Practical Strategies to Promote Economic Growth and Environmental Policy, C.E. Walker, M.S. Bloomfield and M. Thorning (eds.), American Council on Capital Formation, Washington, DC. (1999)
Kyoto’s Unfinished Business, Foreign Affairs 77(4):54-66. (1998)
"CO2 Emissions Limits: Economic Adjustments and the Distribution of Burdens," The Energy Journal 18/3: 31-58. (1997)
"Economic Assessment of CO2 Capture and Disposal” (with R. Eckaus and others), Energy Conversion and Management 38: S621-S627. (1997)
What Does Stabilizing Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Mean?, in B.P. Flannery, K.R. Kolhase and D.G. LeVine (eds.), Critical Issues in the Economics of Climate Change, IPIECA. (1997)
Effects of Reversion on Commodity Projects of Different Length, in L. Trigeorgis (ed.), Real Options in Capital Investment, Praeger, 1995.
Toward a Useful Architecture in Climate Change Negotiations, Report of OECD Workshop on Economic Modeling of Climate Change, Paris, 17-18 September. (1995)
Reversion, Timing Options, and Long-Term Decision-Making, Financial Management, Autumn: 225-240. (1993)
Project Evaluation: A Practical Asset Pricing Method, The Energy Journal 13/2: 19-47. (1992)
A Two-Method Solution to the Investment Timing Option, F.J. Fabozzi (ed.), Advances in Futures and Options Research 5:71-87. (1991)
Adaptation of Water Quality Systems to Potential Climate Change, in T.M. Ballentine and E.Z. Stakhiv (eds.), Proceedings of the First National Conference on Climate Change and Water Resources Management, Albuquerque, New Mexico (1991)
Water Quality, in P.E. Waggoner (ed.), Climate Change and U.S. Water Resources, Report of AAAS Panel on Climatic Variability, Climatic Change, and the Planning of U.S. Water Resources, Wiley Interscience. (1990)
Likely Effects of Climate on Water Quality, in Coping With Climate Change, Proceedings of the Second North American Conference on Preparing for Climate Change: A Cooperative Approach, Washington, D.C.. (1989)
Energy-Markets and Regulation : Essays in Honor of M.A. Adelman. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1987.
Energy Project Evaluation Using Derivative Asset Valuation" (with D.G. Laughton), Papers and Proceedings of the Eighth Annual North American Conference: The Changing World Energy Economy, November 19 21, 1986, International Association of Energy Economists. (1987)
The Economics of Science and Technology, in Science and Technology: Between International Cooperation and Competition, Montedison Progetto Cultura. (1987)
Adapting to Change in Natural Gas Markets, in R.L. Gordon, H.D. Jacoby and M.B. Zimmerman (eds.), Energy Markets and Regulation: Essays in Honor of M.A. Adelman, M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, MA. (1986)
Effects of Taxes and Price Regulation on Offshore Gas, The Energy Journal 6, Special Tax Issue: 279-290. (1985)
Review of J.P. Kalt, The Economics and Politics of Oil Price Regulation: Federal Policy in the Post Embargo Era (M.I.T. Press, 1981), Journal of Political Economy 92(3). (1984)
Establishing an Oil Price Window: The Influence of Policy on Future Oil Prices," in P. Tempest (ed.), International Energy Markets, Oelgeschlager, Gunn and Hain, Cambridge. (1983)
World Oil Prices and Economic Growth in the 1980s, The Energy Journal 7(2): 31-47. (1983)
Energy Planning for Developing Countries: A Study of Bangladesh. Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore, MD. (1982)
Natural Gas Prices: Cutting the Gordian Knot, Conoco 4, 1982.
The Gordian Knot of Natural Gas Prices, The Energy Journal 3(4): 1-24; also in E. Mitchell (ed.), Deregulation of Natural Gas, American Institute for Public Policy Research, 1983. (1982)
Combining Analytical Models and Judgment in Oil Price Forecasts, Proceedings of the American Statistical Association (Business and Economics Statistics Section), American Statistical Association, Washington, DC. (1981)
Foreword to R.A. Morse (ed.), The Politics of Japan's Energy Strategy: Resources Diplomacy Security, Institute for East Asian Studies, University of California, Berkeley. (1981)
World Uranium: Softening Markets and Rising Security, Technology Review 8(3): 18-31. (1981)
Supply Instability and Oil Market Behavior, Energy Systems and Policy 3(4): 401-423; also in J. Dunkerly (ed.), International Energy Strategies, Oelgeschlager, Gunn and Hain, Cambridge, MA, 1980.
Alternative Methods of Oil Supply Forecasting, in R.S. Pindyck (ed.), Advances in the Economics of Energy Resources, Vol. II: The Production and Pricing of Energy Resources, J.A.I. Press, 1979.
Nonproliferation Strategy in a Changing Nuclear Fuel Market, Foreign Affairs 57(5): 1123-1143. (1979)
Supply Assurance in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle, Annual Review of Energy 4: 259-311. (1979)
The Oil Price 'Ratchet' and U.S. Energy Policy, Kokusai Shigen (International Resources), Tokyo. (1979)
Oil Supply Forecasting: A Disaggregated Process Approach, Bell Journal of Economics 9(1): 218-235. (1978)
Uranium Dependence and the Proliferation Problem, Technology Review 79(7): 18-29. (1977)
International Issues in U.S. Energy R&D Policy, Background Papers on the Analysis of the ERDA Plan and Program, U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Washington DC. (1975)
Investment Analysis Using the Probability Distribution of the Internal Rate of Return, Management Science 21(12): 1428-1437. (1975)
Energy Self Sufficiency: An Economic Evaluation, Technology Review 76/6. Republished by the American Enterprise Institute, Washington, D.C., November 1974.
Public Finance and the Energy Crisis, Public Finance and Natural Resources, with Special Reference to Agriculture, International Institute of Public Finance (30th Session), Neptun, Romania. (1974)
Clearing the Air; Federal Policy on Automotive Emissions Control. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger Pub. Co, 1973.
Salvaging the Federal Attempt to Control Auto Pollution, Public Policy XXI(1):1-48. (1973)
Models for Managing Regional Water Quality. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1972.
A Model of Public Decisions Illustrated by a Water Pollution Policy Problem, in R.H. Haveman and J. Margolis (eds.), Public Expenditures and Policy Analysis, Markham, 1970; also R. Dorfman and N.S. Dorfman (eds.), Economics of the Environment, Norton, 1972.
The Combined Use of Optimization and Simulation Models in River Basin Planning, Water Resources Research 8(6): 1401-1414; also in R. de Neufville and D.H. Marks (eds.), System Planning and Design, Prentice Hall, 1974. (1972)
An Electric Power Simulation Model, in G.F. Papnek and W.F. Falcon (eds.), Development Policy II The Pakistan Experience, Harvard University Press. (1971)
Macroeconomics An Introduction to Theory and Policy. Aldine Atherton, Chicago. (1970)
Integrating Regional Water and Power Systems, Regional Science Association Papers 21: 125-137. (1968)
Analysis of Investment in Electric Power . Cambridge, Mass. New York, NY: Harvard University, Center for International Affairs, Development Advisory Service, 1967.
"The Safety Valve and Climate Policy," Energy Policy 32: 481-491.
Adjustment Time, Capital Malleability, and Policy Cost, The Energy Journal, Special Issue: 73-92.
Experiments with a Hybrid-MARKAL Model, The Energy Journal, Special Issue on Hybrid Modeling: 171-177.
Human Influence on Climate, Forum for Applied Research and Public Policy 16/4: 47-51.
Informing Climate Policy Given Incommensurable Benefits Estimates, Global Environmental Change 14/3: 287-297.
Learning the Lessons of Kyoto, Climate Policy 33.
Modeling Human-Climate Interaction, S. Sparks and C. Hawksworth (eds.), The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C.
Multi-Gas Contributors to Global Climate Change: Climate Impacts and Mitigation Costs of Non-CO2 Gases, Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Washington DC.
Uncertainty and Climate Change Assessments, Science 293(5529): 430-433.
We Are Running a Global Risk, International Herald Tribune, 21 June.
Who Really Wants a Climate Agreement Anyway, The World Today, Royal Institute of International Affairs, July.
Climate change; Climate policy; Coal; Emissions trading; Energy; Environment; Environmental policy; Ethanol; Gas; Global climate change; Global warming; Nuclear power; Oil