Deborah Lucas

Sloan Distinguished Professor of Finance

Biography | Selected Publications

“Joint Risk of DB Pension Underfunding and Sponsor Termination: Incorporating Options-Based Projections and Valuations into PIMS.” Lucas, Deborah J. (April 2015). Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 14(2): 172-185.

“‘Truth is our only refuge': why the CBO must remain independent.” Lucas, Deborah J. The Conversation, February 2015.

“Putting an accurate price tag on government credit support.” Lucas, Deborah J. VOXeu, December 2014.

“Evaluating the Cost of Government Credit Support: The OECD Context.” Lucas, Deborah J. (July 2014). Economic Policy, 29(79): 553-597.

“Federal Credit Programs.” Lucas, Deborah J. In Payson, Steven (ed.), Public Economics in the United States: How the Federal Government Analyzes and Influences the Economy, Vol.1. ABC-Clio/Praeger Publishers, June 2014

"Comment on “’Effects of unconventional monetary policy on financial institutions’ by Gabriel Chowdorow-Reich." Lucas, Deborah J. (Spring 2014). Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.

“Comment on ‘Testing macroprudential stress Tests: The risk of regulatory risk weights,’ by Viral Acharya, Robert Engle, and Diane Pierre.” Lucas, Deborah J (2014). Journal of Monetary Economics, 65: 54-56. (2014)

“Evaluating the Government as a Source of Systemic Risk.” Lucas, Deborah J. Financial Perspectives, 2(3): 2014.

“Rebutting Arrow and Lind: Why Governments Should Use Market Rates for Discounting.” Lucas, Deborah J. (2014). Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research, 6(1): 85-91. (2014)

"Keeping College Within Reach: Examining Opportunities to Strengthen Federal Student Loan Programs." Lucas, Deborah J. Testimony before the Committee on Education and the Workforce, U.S. House of Representatives, 2013

“Valuation of Government Policies and Projects.” Lucas, Deborah J. (October 2012). Annual Review of Financial Economics, 4: 39-58.

“Fair-Value Accounting for Federal Credit Programs.” Hadley, Mark, and Deborah J. Lucas. Congressional Budget Office Issue Brief, March 2012.

Aging and the Macroeconomy. Long-Term Implications of an Older Population. Committee on the Long-Run Macro-Economic Effects of the Aging U.S. Population. Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 2012.

“Comment on ‘The Future of U.S. Housing Finance Reform’ by Phillip Swagel.” Lucas, Deborah J. (2012). The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Special Issue: Long-Term Effects of the Great Recession, 12(3). (2012)

“The Federal Debt: Assessing the Capacity to Pay.” Lucas, Deborah J. In Allen, Franklin, Anna Gelpern, Charles Mooney, David Skeel (eds.), Is the U.S. Government Debt Different? Philadelphia: FIC Press, 2012.

“Federal Loan Guarantees for the Construction of Nuclear Power Plants.” Kiska, Wendy, and Deborah J. Lucas. Congressional Budget Office Study, 2011.

“The Budgetary Cost of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and Options for the Future Federal Role in the Secondary Mortgage Market.” Lucas, Deborah J. Testimony before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. House of Representatives, 2011

“Is Mark-to-Market Accounting Destabilizing? Analysis and Implications for Policy.” Heaton, John, Deborah J. Lucas, and Robert L. McDonald (January 2010). Journal of Monetary Economics, 57(1): 64-75.

“Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Role of the Secondary Mortgage Market.” Lucas, Deborah J., and David Torregrosa. Congressional Budget Office Study, 2010.

“Guaranteed Versus Direct Lending: The Case of Student Loans.” Lucas, Deborah J., and Damien Moore. In Lucas, Deborah J. (ed.), Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 2010

“Heterogeneity and Portfolio Choice: Theory and Evidence.” Curcuru, Stephanie, John Heaton, Deborah J. Lucas, and Damien Moore. In Aït-Sahalia, Yacine, and Lars Peter Hansen (eds.), The Handbook of Financial Econometrics, Vol 1. North Holland, 2010.

“The Budgetary Impact and Subsidy Cost of the Federal Reserve’s Activities During and Financial Crisis.” Kowalewski, Kim, Wendy Kiska, and Deborah J. Lucas. Congressional Budget Office, 2010.

“The Cost of Risk to the Government and Its Implications for Federal Budgeting.” Lucas, Deborah J., and Marvin Phaup. In Lucas, Deborah J. (ed.), Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 2010

“Valuing Government Guarantees: Fannie and Freddie Revisited.” Lucas, Deborah J., and Robert L. McDonald. In Lucas, Deborah J. (ed.), Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 2010

“How Should Public Pension Plans Invest?" Lucas, Deborah J., and Stephen Zeldes (May 2009). American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 99(2): 527-532.

“Valuing Government Guarantees: Fannie and Freddie Revisited" (with Robert McDonald), in Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk, edited by D. Lucas. (2009)

“Comment on ‘Making Sense of the Subprime Crisis’ by K. Gerardi, A. Lehnart, S. Sherland and P. Willen.” Lucas, Deborah J. (Fall 2008). Brookings Papers on Economic Activities.

“Reforming Credit Reform.” Lucas, Deborah J., and Marvin Phaup (Winter 2008). Public Budgeting & Finance, 28(4): 90-110.

“There’s Just No Accounting for Federal Bailouts.” Lucas, Deborah J. Editorial, Crain’s Chicago Business, 2008

“Federal Financial Guarantees Under the Small Business Administration’s 7(a) Program.” Kiska, Wendy, and Deborah J. Lucas. Congressional Budget Office Paper, October 2007.

“Can Heterogeneity, Undiversified Risk, and Trading Frictions Solve the Equity Premium Puzzle?” Lucas, Deborah J., and John Heaton. In Mehra, Rajnish (ed.), Handbook of Investments: Equity Risk Premium 1. Elsevier Science: September 2007.

“Comment on ‘Global Demographic Trends and Social Security Reform’ by Orazio Attanasio, Sagiri Kitao, and Giovanni Violante.” Lucas, Deborah J. (2007). Journal of Monetary Economics. (2007)

“Comment on ‘On Asset-Liability Matching and Federal Deposit and Pension Insurance’ by Zvi Bodie.” Lucas, Deborah J. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review Conference Proceedings, July 2006.

“An Options-Based Approach to Evaluating the Risk of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.” Lucas, Deborah J., and Robert L. McDonald (2006). Journal of Monetary Economics, 53(1): 155-176. (2006)

“Evaluating Benefit Guarantees in Social Securit.” Lucas, Deborah J,, Amy Rehder Harris, Michael Simpson, Sven Sinclair and Julie Topoleski. Congressional Budget Office Background Paper, 2006

“Who Holds the Toxic Waste? An Investigation of MBS Holdings.” Haubrich, Joseph, and Deborah J. Lucas. Proceedings, 2006 Conference on Bank Structure and Competition, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

“The Risk Exposure of the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation.” Lucas, Deborah J., Wendy Kiska and Marvin Phaup. Congressional Budget Office Study, 2005

“Estimating the Value of Subsidies for Federal Loans and Loan Guarantees.” Lucas, Deborah J., Marvin Phaup, and Ravi Prasad. Congressional Budget Office, 2004

“Modeling the Effects of Fiscal Policy Imbalances: How Much Does Myopia Matter?” Lucas, Deborah J. (October 2003). Review of Economic Dynamics, 6(4): 789-805.

“Evaluating and Accounting for Federal Investment in Corporate Stocks and Other Private Securities.” Lucas, Deborah J., Doug Hamilton, and Marvin Phaup. Congressional Budget Office, 2003

“Lessons from Market Efficiency.” Lucas, Deborah J. In Aspatore C-Level Business Intelligence, 2003

“Investing Public Pensions in the Stock Market: Implications for Risk Sharing, Capital Formation and Public Policy in the Developed and Developing World.” Lucas, Deborah J. (September 2001). Sasin Journal of Management, 2(3): 179-202.

"Federal Subsidies and the Housing GSEs." Lucas, Deborah J., and Marvin Phaup. Congressional Budget Office, 2001.

“Asset Pricing and Portfolio Choice: The Role of Entrepreneurial Risk.” Heaton, John, and Deborah J. Lucas (June 2000). Journal of Finance, 55(3): 1163-1198.

“Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Background Risk.” Heaton, John, and Deborah J. Lucas (January 2000). The Economic Journal, 110(460): 1-26.

“Stock Prices and Fundamentals.” Heaton, John, and Deborah J. Lucas (January 2000). In Bernanke, Ben S., and Julio J. Rotemberg (eds.) NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 14: 213-264.

“Comment on ‘The Social Security Trust Fund, the Riskless Interest Rate, and Capital Accumulation,’ by Andrew B. Abel.” Lucas, Deborah J. In Risk Aspects of Investment Based Social Security Reform, NBER, 2000.

“Price and Interest Rate Dynamics Induced by Multiperiod Contracts.” Lucas, Deborah J. (1999). North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 10(2): 315-338. (1999)

“Shareholder Heterogeneity, Adverse Selection, and Payout Policy.” Lucas, Deborah J., and Robert McDonald (June 1998). Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 33(2): 233-253.

“External Financing and Insurance Cycles.” Gron, Anne, and Deborah J. Lucas (January 1998). NBER Conference Volume on Property Casualty Insurance. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press: 5-28.

“Market Frictions, Savings Behavior, and Portfolio Choice.” Heaton, John, and Deborah J. Lucas (January 1997). Macroeconomic Dynamics, 1(1): 76-101.

“Managed Competition with Prefunding: The Solution for Long-term Care?” Lucas, Deborah J. (November 1996). The Milbank Quarterly, 74(4): 571-591.

“Evaluating the Effects of Incomplete Markets on Risk Sharing and Asset Pricing.” Heaton, John, and Deborah J. Lucas (June 1996). Journal of Political Economy, 104(3): 443-487.

“Comment on ‘The Case for Indexed Government Debt’ by John Campbell and Robert Shiller.” Lucas, Deborah J. 1996 NBER Macroeconomics Annual. (1996)

“The Importance of Investor Heterogeneity and Financial Market Imperfections for the Behavior of Asset Prices.” Heaton, John, and Deborah J. Lucas (June 1995). Carnegie Rochester Papers, 42(1): 1-32.

“Comment on 'Financial Intermediation and Monetary Policy in a General Equilibrium Banking Model' by Pamela Labadie.” Lucas, Deborah J. (1995). Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. (1995)

“Asset Pricing with Undiversifiable Income Risk and Short Sales Constraints: Deepening the Equity Premium Puzzle.” Lucas, Deborah J. (December 1994). Journal of Monetary Economics, 34(3): 325-341.

“Comment on ‘A "Barter" Theory of Bank Regulation and Credit Allocation,’ by Anjan Thakor and Jess Beltz.” Lucas, Deborah J. (1994). Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. (1994)

“Equity Issues with Time-Varying Asymmetric Information.” Korajczyk, Robert A., Deborah J. Lucas, and Robert L. McDonald (September 1992). Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 27(3): 397-417.

“The Effects of Incomplete Insurance Markets and Trading Costs in a Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Model.” Heaton, John, and Deborah J. Lucas (July-October 1992). Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 16(3-4): 601-620.

"Asset Pricing with Incomplete Markets, A Survey." Lucas, Deborah J. (1992). Cuadernos Economicos de ICE, 50. (1992)

“Bank Financing and Investment Decisions with Asymmetric Information about Loan Quality.” Lucas, Deborah J., and Robert McDonald (Spring 1992). Rand Journal, 23(1): 86-105.

“Foundations of the Cash-in-Advance Model” Lucas, Deborah J. (June 1991). A review essay of Finance Constraints and the Theory of Money by S. C. Tsiang, Journal of Monetary Economics, 27(3): 487-493.

“The Variability of Velocity in Cash-in-Advance Models.” Hodrick, Robert J., Narayana Kocherlakota, and Deborah J. Lucas (April 1991). Journal of Political Economy, 99(2): 358-384.

“The Effect of Information Releases on the Pricing and Timing of Equity Issues.” Korajczyk, Robert A., Deborah J. Lucas, and Robert L. McDonald (1991). Review of Financial Studies, 4(4): 685-708. (1991)

“Equity Issues and Stock Price Dynamics.” Lucas, Deborah J., and Robert L. McDonald (September 1990). Journal of Finance, 45(4): 1019-1043.

“Understanding the Behavior of Stock Prices around the Time of an Equity Issue.” Korajczyk, Robert A., Deborah J. Lucas, and Robert L. McDonald. In Hubbard, Glenn (ed.), Information, Capital Markets, and Investment. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1990.

“Bank Portfolio Choice with Private Information About Loan Quality: Theory and Implications for Regulation.” Lucas, Deborah J., and Robert L. McDonald (1987). Journal of Banking and Finance, 11(3): 473-497. (1987)

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Contact Information
Office: E62-640
Tel: (617) 715-4816
Support Staff
Name: Safia Albaiti
Tel: (617) 253-9747
Group(s)

Research Center(s)

General Expertise
Fannie Mae; federal budget; federal credit programs; Fiscal policies; Freddie Mac; Governmental financial institutions; Retirement finance; Social Security; student loans