John C Head III Dean
Professor of Marketing
Biography | Selected Publications
"A Live Baby or Your Money Back: The Marketing of in vitro Fertilization Procedures," Schmittlein, D.C. and D.G. Morrison, in Management Science, 49, 12, 1617–1635. (2003)
“Cross-National Empirical Generalization of a Supplier Selection and Usage Model for Global Business Services,” Bowman, D., J. U. Farley and D. C. Schmittlein, in Journal of International Business Studies, 31, 4, 667–685. (2000)
“The Little Engines That Could: Modeling the Performance of World Wide Web Search Engines,” Bradlow, Eric T. and David C. Schmittlein, in Marketing Science, 19, 1, 43-62. (2000)
“The Distribution of Survey Contact and Participation in America: Constructing a Survey-Based Estimate,“ Journal of Marketing Research, 36 (May 1999) 286-294.
“It Takes A Hot Goalie To Raise the Stanley Cup: The Role of Team Ability, Home Ice, and the Hot Hand in the Stanley Cup Finals,” Chance, 11(1) 3-7. (1998)
“No Problem! How Confident? Comforting Findings from JCR Pretests, Manipulation Checks, and Problem-Incidence Levels,“ 1998.
“Testing New Direct Marketing Offerings: The Interplay of Management Judgment and Statistical Models,” Management Science, 44(5) 610-628. (1998)
“Why Customers Belong in Your List of Assets,“ Australia Business Review Weekly, May 19, 1997.
“Keep Your Customer and You’ll Be Satisfied,“ Australia Business Review Weekly, May 1997.
"Assessing How Many Customers Have Really Been Won or Lost in Industrial Markets," 1996.
“The Effect of Variety Seeking Behavior on Optimal Product Positioning,” Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis, 12(1), 27-44. (1996)
“Customers as Strategic Assets,“ The Financial Times, December 1995. Reprinted in The Financial Post (Toronto), November 30, 1996. Reprinted as “Le client, un actif stratègique," in Les Echos: Le Quotidien de la Economie, March 1997. (France)
Representing Multi-Item Choice: Development of a General Model, and Applications.
"Customer Base Analysis: An Industrial Purchase Process Application," Marketing Science, 13, 41-67. Recipient, John D. C. Little Award for Best Paper in an INFORMS journal. (1994)
"Understanding Price Effects for New Nondurables: How Price Responsiveness Varies Across Depth-of-Repeat Classes and Types of Consumer," European Journal of Operational Research, 76, 359-374. (1994)
"Analyzing Duration Times in Marketing: Evidence for the Effectiveness of Hazard Rate Models," Marketing Science, 12, 395-414. (1993)
"Does Measuring Intent Change Behavior?" Journal of Consumer Research, 20, 46-61. (1993)
"Excess Behavioral Loyalty for High-Share Brands: Deviations from the Dirichlet Model for Repeat Purchasing," Journal of Marketing Research, 30, 478-493. (1993)
"Truth in Concentration in the Land of (80/20) Laws," Marketing Science, 12, (1993) 167-183. Finalist, Best Paper Award, Marketing Science Institute, 1994. (1993)
"Attribute Interdependencies in Product Performance Claims: Truth and Consequences," in Proceedings, NAD Workshop IV, Product Performance Tests, (June 1992), 99-108.
"How Does A Product Market's Typical Price-Promotion Pattern Affect the Timing of Households' Purchases: An Empirical Study Using UPC Scanner Data," Journal of Retailing, 68, 316-338. (1992)
"Some Characterizations of Stockpiling Behavior Under Uncertainty," Marketing Letters, 3, 5-16. (1992)
"The Relationship Between Purchases Made on Promotion and Shopping Trip Behavior," Journal of Retailing, 68, 294-315. (1992)
"Using Segmentation to Improve Sales Forecasts Based on Purchase Intent: Which Intenders Actually Buy?" Journal of Marketing Research, 29 (1992), 391-405. Abstracted in the Journal of Product Innovation Management, 10 (1993), 359. Winner, best paper award, 1994: American Marketing Association, Advanced Research Techniques Forum. (1992)
"Inferring Causality in Consumer Perception Studies in Litigation Contexts," in Proceedings, NAD Workshop III, Advances in Claim Substantiation (April 1991), 161-170.
"Combining Forecasts: Operational Adjustments to Theoretically Optimal Rules," Management Science, 36, 1044-1056. (1991)
"How Many Forecasters Do You Really Have? Mahalanobis Provides the Intuition for the Surprising Clemen and Winkler Result," Operations Research, 39, 519-523. (1991)
"Models of Purchase Timing and Models of Brand Choice: Outlook and Issues," International Journal of Research in Marketing, 8, 163-168. (1991)
A Method for Analyzing Left-Filtered Marketing Durations with an Application to Panel Dropout, May 1989.
Combining Multiple Estimates: An Application to Damage Assessment Litigation, May 1989.
"Shopping Trip Behavior: An Empirical Investigation," Marketing Letters, 1, 55-70. (1989)
"Surprising Inferences from Unsurprising Observations: Do Conditional Expectations Really Regress to the Mean?" The American Statistician, 43, 176-183. (1989)
Definitions of Marketing Models in P. Bennett (ed.) Dictionary of Marketing Terms, Chicago, IL.: American Marketing Association, 1988.
"Generalizing the NBD Model for Customer Purchases: What Are the Implications and Is It Worth the Effort?" (with Comments and Reply) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 6, 145-166. (1988)
Methods for Choosing Among Statistical Models: The Relation Between Akaike's Information Criterion and the Likelihood Ratio Test (1987)
The Complexity of the Conjoint Measurement Task Affects the Number of Attributes Used to Form Preferences: i.e., It Matters How You Measure, June 1987.
The Effect of Variety Seeking Behavior on Optimal Product Positioning, May 1987.
A Generalized NBD Regression.
"Counting Your Customers: Who Are They and What Will They Do Next?" Management Science, 33, 1-24. (1987)
Which Preference Distributions Lead to Luce's Choice Axiom? February 1986.
"A Bayesian Cross-Validated Likelihood Method for Comparing Alternate Specifications of Quantitative Models," Marketing Science, 4, 20-40. (1985)
"Is the Customer Still Active?" The American Statistician, 39, 291-295. (1985)
"Why Does the NBD Model Work? Robustness in Representing Product Purchases, Brand Purchases and Imperfectly Recorded Purchases," Marketing Science, 4, 255-266. (1985)
Issues in Measuring Concentration Among Firms, Suppliers and Customers, August 1984. Part of this paper is incorporated in a working paper with Lee Cooper and Donald G. Morrison, "Truth in Concentration in the Land of (80/20) Laws."
Conditional Expectations for Brands in an NBD Product Category: A Mathematical Characterization with Managerial Implications, May 1984. A modified and extended version, with additional analyses, was published as "Why Does the NBD Model Work?..." in Marketing Science.
"Assessing Validity and Test-Retest Reliability for 'Pick K of N' Data," Marketing Science, 3, 23-40. (1984)
"Integration of the Sales Force: An Empirical Examination," The Rand Journal of Economics, 15, 385-395. Reprinted in O. E. Williamson and S. E. Masten (eds.), Transaction Cost Economics, Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., a volume in the series, The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Mark Blaug (Series ed.), 1994. (1984)
Theory and Empirical Fit: A Bayesian Approach to Comparing Structural Equation Models, in Proceedings of the American Marketing Association's 1984 Winter Marketing Educators' Conference.
The Role of Within Group Variance in the Design and Analysis of Market Experiments, June 1983.
"Measuring Miscomprehension for Televised Communications Using True-False Questions," Journal of Consumer Research, 10, 147-156. (1983)
"Modeling and Estimation Using Job Duration Data," Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 32, 1-22. (1983)
"Prediction of Future Random Events with the Condensed Negative Binomial Distribution," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 78, 449-456. (1983)
"Some Sampling Properties of a Model for Income Distribution," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 1, 147-153. (1983)
Conditional Expectations for a Generalized NBD Model: Theory and Applications, February 1982. A modified and extended version, with additional analyses, was published as "Why Does the NBD Model Work?..." in Marketing Science.
"Maximum Likelihood Estimation for an Innovation Diffusion Model of New Product Acceptance," Marketing Science, 1, 57-78. (1982)
The Effect of Uncertainty on Attribute Importance in Linear Compensatory Models, September 1981.
A Stochastic Model for Evaluating Repeated Media Insertions, July 1981.
"A Model of Careers in a Simple Hierarchy: Generalizing the Junior Professional's Decision Rule," The Bell Journal of Economics, 12, 310-320. (1981)
"On Individual-Level Inference in Job Duration Research: A Reexamination of the Wisconsin School Superintendents Study," Administrative Science Quarterly, 25, 84-89. (1981)
"Predicting Future Random Events Based on Past Performance," Management Science, 27, 1006-1023. (1981)
"The Median Residual Lifetime: A Characterization Theorem and an Application," Operations Research, 29, 392-399. (1981)
"Jobs, Strikes and Wars: Probability Models for Duration" Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 25, 224-251. (1980)
A Nonstationary Markovian Binary Choice Model, May 1978.
Advertising; Applied mathematics; Applied probability; Bayesian statistics; Brand management; Branding; B-school; Business education; Consumer behavior; Customer relationships and CRM; Database marketing; Education; International marketing; Market research; Marketing; Marketing channels; Marketing strategy; Marketing, international; MBA; Online shopping; Pricing; Product development and design; Product loyalty; Retail; Sampling; Statistics; Stochastic modeling; Web-based marketing