Publications and Working Papers
“The Financial Consequences of Too Many Men: Sex Ratio Effects on Saving, Borrowing, and Spending,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. (forthcoming)
Engineering Social Contagions: Optimal Network Seeding in the Presence of Homophily (2013)
Paying With Money Or With Effort: Pricing When Customers Anticipate Hassle (2012)
Three Way Complementarities: Performance Pay, HR Analytics and Information Technology (2012)
Tie Strength, Embeddedness and Social Influence: Evidence from a Large Scale Networked Experiment (2012)
“Fundamental Motives and Business Decisions,” in G. Saad (Ed.) Evolutionary Psychology in the Business Sciences. Springer. (2011)
“Let’s Get Serious: Communicating Commitment in Romantic Relationship Formation,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. (2011)
“Why We Buy: Evolution and Consumer Behavior,” in S. C. Roberts (Ed.) Applied Evolutionary Psychology, Oxford University Press. (2011)
Content and Context: Identifying the Impact of Qualitative Information on Consumer Choice (2011)
Creating Social Contagion through Viral Product Design: A Randomized Trial of Peer Influence in Networks (2011)
Engineering Social Contagions: Optimal Network Seeding and Incentive Strategies (2011)
Identifying Influential and Susceptible Individuals in Social Networks: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment (2011)
Identifying Social Influence: A Comment on Opinion Leadership and Social Contagion in New Product Diffusion (2011)
Search Engine Advertising: Channel Substitution When Pricing Ads to Context (2011)
Stuck in the Adoption Funnel: The Effect of Interruptions in the Adoption Process on Usage (2011)
“Incidental haptic sensations influence social judgments and decisions,” Science. (2010)
Discovering the Network Structures that Support Massive Distributed Collaboration in Wikipedia (2010)
Engineering Contagions: Identifying Optimal Seeing and Virality Strategies in Social Networks (2010)
Growing Two-Sided Networks by Advertising the User Base: A Field Experiment (2010)
How Sales Taxes Affect Customer and Firm Behavior: The Role of Search on the Internet (2010)
Identifying Influential and Susceptible Individuals in Social Networks: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment (2010)
"Infection breeds reticence: The effects of disease salience on self-perceptions of personality and behavioral avoidance tendencies," Psychological Science. (2009)
“You Wear Me Out: The Vicarious Depletion of Self-Control,” Psychological Science, 20, 326-332. (2009)
Network Structure and Information Worker Productivity: New Evidence from the Global Consulting Services Industry (2009)
Privacy Protection and Technology Diffusion: The Case of Electronic Medical Records (2009)
Testing Three-Way Complementarities: Incentives, Monitoring and Information Technology (2009)
"Social Computing, Networks and Knowledge Management" in Information and Communication Technologies Futures (2008)
“The Costs of Benefits: Help-Refusals Highlight Key Trade-Offs of Social Life,” Personality and Social Psychology Review, 12, 118-140. (2008)
Identifying Formal and Informal Influence in Technology Adoption with Network Externalities (2008)
Mining Face to Face Interaction Networks Using Sociometric Badges: Evidence Predicting Productivity in IT (2008)
Mining Face to Face Interaction Networks Using Sociometric Badges: Evidence Predicting Productivity in IT Configuration (2008)
Modeling Social Interactions: Identification, Policy Methods and Policy Implications (2008)
Search Engine Advertising: Examining a profitable side of the long tail of advertising that is not possible under the traditional broadcast advertising model (2008)
Trust, Costs and Incentives in Global Supplier Networks: Evidence from IT Sourcing Decisions (2008)
“Is Friendship Akin to Kinship?” Evolution & Human Behavior, 28, 365-374. (2007)
IT Assets, Organizational Capabilities & Firm Performance: How Resource Allocations and Organizational Differences Explain Performance Variation (2007)
Mining Face to Face Interaction Networks Using Sociometric Badges: Evidence Predicting Productivity in IT Configuration (2007)
Information, Technology and Information Worker Productivity: Task Level Evidence (2006)
Which Came First, IT or Productivity? The Virtuous Cycle of Investment and Use in Enterprise Systems (2006)
“A Live Baby or Your Money Back: The Marketing of in vitro Fertilization Procedures,” Management Science, 49(12) 2003.
"Metrics Thermostat," Journal of Product Innovation Management, 18, (May), Designated as lead article. (2001)
"Product Development in the New Dispersed Environment," invited paper for the Handbook of Marketing, Barton Weitz and Robin Wensley, Eds, Sage Press, 2001.
"The Virtual Customer", working paper, Cambridge, MA: Center for Innovation in Product Development, MIT, (December). Under review at the Journal of Product Innovation Management. (2000)
“Cross-National Empirical Generalization of a Supplier Selection and Usage Model for Global Business Services,” Journal of International Business Studies, 31(4) 2000.
“The Little Engines That Could: Modeling the Performance of World Wide Web Search Engines,” Marketing Science, 19(1) 2000.
“The Distribution of Survey Contact and Participation in America: Constructing a Survey-Based Estimate,” Journal of Marketing Research, 36 (May 1999) 286-294.
“It Takes A Hot Goalie To Raise the Stanley Cup: The Role of Team Ability, Home Ice, and the Hot Hand in the Stanley Cup Finals,” Chance, 11(1) (1998) 3-7. (1998)
“No Problem! How Confident? Comforting Findings from JCR Pretests, Manipulation Checks, and Problem-Incidence Levels,” 1998.
“Testing New Direct Marketing Offerings: The Interplay of Management Judgment and Statistical Models,” Management Science, 44(5) (1998) 610-628. (1998)
“Customers as Strategic Assets,” The Financial Times, December 1995. Reprinted in The Financial Post (Toronto), November 30, 1996. Reprinted as “Le client, un actif stratègique,” in Les Echos: Le Quotidien de la Economie, March 1997. (France)
“Keep Your Customer and You’ll Be Satisfied,” Australia Business Review Weekly, May 1997.
“Why Customers Belong in Your List of Assets,” Australia Business Review Weekly, May 19, 1997.
"Assessing How Many Customers Have Really Been Won or Lost in Industrial Markets," 1996.
“The Effect of Variety Seeking Behavior on Optimal Product Positioning,” Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis, 12(1) (1996) 27-44. (1996)
"Customer Base Analysis: An Industrial Purchase Process Application," Marketing Science, 13 (1994) 41-67. Recipient, John D. C. Little Award for Best Paper in an INFORMS journal. (1994)
"Understanding Price Effects for New Nondurables: How Price Responsiveness Varies Across Depth-of-Repeat Classes and Types of Consumer," European Journal of Operational Research, 76 (1994) 359-374. (1994)
The Marketing Information Revolution. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press, 1994.
"Analyzing Duration Times in Marketing: Evidence for the Effectiveness of Hazard Rate Models," Marketing Science, 12 (1993) 395-414. (1993)
"Does Measuring Intent Change Behavior?" Journal of Consumer Research, 20 (1993) 46-61. (1993)
"Excess Behavioral Loyalty for High-Share Brands: Deviations from the Dirichlet Model for Repeat Purchasing," Journal of Marketing Research, 30 (1993) 478-493. (1993)
"Truth in Concentration in the Land of (80/20) Laws," Marketing Science, 12, (1993) 167-183. Finalist, Best Paper Award, Marketing Science Institute, 1994. (1993)
Design and Marketing of New Products (2nd Ed). Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall, 1993.
"Attribute Interdependencies in Product Performance Claims: Truth and Consequences,” in Proceedings, NAD Workshop IV, Product Performance Tests, (June 1992), 99-108.
"How Does A Product Market's Typical Price-Promotion Pattern Affect the Timing of Households' Purchases: An Empirical Study Using UPC Scanner Data," Journal of Retailing, 68 (1992) 316-338. (1992)
"Some Characterizations of Stockpiling Behavior Under Uncertainty," Marketing Letters, 3 (1992), 5-16. (1992)
"The Relationship Between Purchases Made on Promotion and Shopping Trip Behavior," Journal of Retailing, 68 (1992) 294-315. (1992)
"Using Segmentation to Improve Sales Forecasts Based on Purchase Intent: Which "Intenders" Actually Buy?" Journal of Marketing Research, 29 (1992), 391-405. Abstracted in the Journal of Product Innovation Management, 10 (1993), 359. Winner, best paper award, 1994: American Marketing Association, Advanced Research Techniques Forum. (1992)
"Combining Forecasts: Operational Adjustments to Theoretically Optimal Rules," Management Science, 36 (1991) 1044-1056. (1991)
"How Many Forecasters Do You Really Have? Mahalanobis Provides the Intuition for the Surprising Clemen and Winkler Result," Operations Research, 39, (1991) 519-523. (1991)
"Inferring Causality in Consumer Perception Studies in Litigation Contexts," in Proceedings, NAD Workshop III, Advances in Claim Substantiation (April 1991), 161-170.
"Models of Purchase Timing and Models of Brand Choice: Outlook and Issues," International Journal of Research in Marketing, 8 (1991),163-168. (1991)
Advanced Marketing Strategy: Phenomena, Analysis and Decisions. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall, 1991.
Dynamic Effects of the Order of Entry on Market Share, Trial Penetration, and Repeat Purchases for Frequently Puchased Consumer Goods (1990)
Modeling Categorization, Elimination, and Consideration for New Product Forecasting of Consumer Durables (1990)
"A Method for Analyzing Left-Filtered Marketing Durations with an Application to Panel Dropout," May 1989.
"Combining Multiple Estimates: An Application to Damage Assessment Litigation," May 1989.
"Shopping Trip Behavior: An Empirical Investigation," Marketing Letters, 1, (1989) 55-70. (1989)
"Surprising Inferences from Unsurprising Observations: Do Conditional Expectations Really Regress to the Mean?" The American Statistician, 43 (1989) 176-183. (1989)
"Definitions of Marketing Models" in P. Bennett (ed.) Dictionary of Marketing Terms, Chicago, IL.: American Marketing Association, 1988.
"Generalizing the NBD Model for Customer Purchases: What Are the Implications and Is It Worth the Effort?" (with Comments and Reply) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 6 (1988), 145-166. (1988)
"Counting Your Customers: Who Are They and What Will They Do Next?" Management Science, 33 (1987), 1-24. (1987)
"Methods for Choosing Among Statistical Models: The Relation Between Akaike's Information Criterion and the Likelihood Ratio Test," June 1987.
"The Complexity of the Conjoint Measurement Task Affects the Number of Attributes Used to Form Preferences: i.e., It Matters How You Measure," June 1987.
"The Effect of Variety Seeking Behavior on Optimal Product Positioning," May 1987.
"Which Preference Distributions Lead to Luce's Choice Axiom?" February 1986.
"A Bayesian Cross-Validated Likelihood Method for Comparing Alternate Specifications of Quantitative Models," Marketing Science, 4 (1985), 20-40. (1985)
"Is the Customer Still Active?" The American Statistician, 39 (1985), 291-295. (1985)
"Why Does the NBD Model Work? Robustness in Representing Product Purchases, Brand Purchases and Imperfectly Recorded Purchases," Marketing Science, 4 (1985), 255-266. (1985)
"Assessing Validity and Test-Retest Reliability for 'Pick K of N' Data," Marketing Science, 3 (1984), 23-40. (1984)
"Conditional Expectations for Brands in an NBD Product Category: A Mathematical Characterization with Managerial Implications," May 1984. A modified and extended version, with additional analyses, was published as article #14.
"Integration of the Sales Force: An Empirical Examination," The Rand Journal of Economics, 15 (1984), 385-395. Reprinted in O. E. Williamson and S. E. Masten (eds.), Transaction Cost Economics, Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., a volume in the series, The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Mark Blaug (Series ed.), 1994. (1984)
"Issues in Measuring Concentration Among Firms, Suppliers and Customers," August 1984. Part of this paper is incorporated in a working paper with Lee Cooper and Donald G. Morrison, "Truth in Concentration in the Land of (80/20) Laws."
"Theory and Empirical Fit: A Bayesian Approach to Comparing Structural Equation Models," in Proceedings of the American Marketing Association's 1984 Winter Marketing Educators' Conference.
Decision Support Systems for Marketing Managers. New York, NY: AMA Membership Publications Division, American Management Associations, 1984.
"Measuring Miscomprehension for Televised Communications Using True-False Questions," Journal of Consumer Research, 10 (1983), 147-156. (1983)
"Modeling and Estimation Using Job Duration Data," Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 32 (1983), 1-22. (1983)
"Prediction of Future Random Events with the Condensed Negative Binomial Distribution," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 78 (1983) 449-456. (1983)
"Some Sampling Properties of a Model for Income Distribution," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 1 (1983), 147-153. (1983)
"The Role of Within Group Variance in the Design and Analysis of Market Experiments," June 1983.
Reducing the Risk of Failure and Improving the Profitability of New Consumer Products with the ASSESSOR Pre-Test Market Evaluation System (1983)
"Conditional Expectations for a Generalized NBD Model: Theory and Applications," February 1982. A modified and extended version, with additional analyses, was published as article #14.
"Maximum Likelihood Estimation for an Innovation Diffusion Model of New Product Acceptance," Marketing Science, 1 (1982), 57-78. (1982)
"A Model of Careers in a Simple Hierarchy: Generalizing the Junior Professional's Decision Rule," The Bell Journal of Economics, 12 (1981), 310-320. (1981)
"On Individual-Level Inference in Job Duration Research: A Reexamination of the Wisconsin School Superintendents Study," Administrative Science Quarterly, 25 (1981), 84-89. (1981)
"Predicting Future Random Events Based on Past Performance," Management Science, 27 (1981), 1006-1023. (1981)
"The Effect of Uncertainty on Attribute Importance in Linear Compensatory Models," September 1981.
"The Median Residual Lifetime: A Characterization Theorem and an Application," Operations Research, 29 (1981), 392-399. (1981)
"Jobs, Strikes and Wars: Probability Models for Duration" Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 25 (1980), 224-251. (1980)
"Representing Multi-Item Choice: Development of a General Model, and Applications."