Lending standards can be too tight for too long, research finds
When banks tighten lending standards following a shock, they can set off a chain reaction that can worsen and prolong a credit crunch.
Faculty
On Sabbatical leave 2026-2027.
Jonathan A. Parker is the Robert C. Merton (1970) Professor of Financial Economics and codirector of the MIT Sloan Consumer Finance Initiative. He is also an economic adviser for the Congressional Budget Office, a coeditor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives, and a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Parker has been both Area Head of Economics, Finance, and Accounting at Sloan and Head of the Finance Group, and is a CoDirector Emeritus at the MIT Golub Center for Finance and Policy. Parker has served as a visiting scholar at several Federal Reserve Banks, as special adviser on Financial Stability for the Office of Financial Stability in the U.S. Department of the Treasury in 2009, as contractor for Fidelity, as a contractor for the JPMorgan Chase Institute, as an editor of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual, on the Board of Editors of the American Economic Review, and as Head of the Finance Group at MIT Sloan.
An expert in finance, macroeconomics, and household behavior, Parker has published widely on topics such as macroeconomic risks and asset returns, household financial decisions, fiscal stabilization policy, national saving, the measurement of business cycles, and modeling human economic behavior.
Featured Publication
"Why Don't Households Smooth Consumption? Evidence from a 25 Million Dollar Experiment."Parker, Jonathan A. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Vol. 9, No. 4 (2017): 153-183. Publisher Page. Online appendix.
Featured Publication
"Optimal Time-Inconsistent Beliefs: Misplanning, Procrastination, and Commitment."Brunnermeier, Markus K., Filippos Papakonstantinou, and Jonathan A. Parker. Management Science Vol. 63, No. 5 (2017): 1318-1340. Online Appendix.
Parker, Jonathan A., Antoinette Schoar, Allison Cole, and Duncan Simester. Journal of Finance Vol. 80, No. 5 (2025): 2739-2787.
Kim, Olivia S., Jonathan A. Parker, and Antoinette Schoar. Journal of Financial Economics Vol. 170, (2025): 104079.
Parker, Jonathan A. and Yang Sun. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 20th Anniversary Special Issue Vol. 24, No. 1 (2025): 183-208.
Fishman, Michael J., Jonathan A. Parker, and Ludwig Straub. The Review of Financial Studies Vol. 37, No. 8 (2024): 2355-2402. Preprint. Appendix.
When banks tighten lending standards following a shock, they can set off a chain reaction that can worsen and prolong a credit crunch.
Four MIT Sloan economists on lessons learned and next steps after the demise of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic.
Bigger refunds could lead to more spending by consumers, which can push prices higher. Professor Jonathan Parker said this extra spending could easily increase inflation. He also said stimulus checks during the 2020–2021 pandemic were linked to rising inflation and were a contributing factor to the price surge later.
Some analysts have said that bigger tax refunds in early 2026 could boost consumer demand and inflation pressure. "It could easily be inflationary," said professor Jonathan Parker. The stimulus checks issued during the Covid-19 pandemic were "certainly correlated" with higher inflation, Parker told CNBC. Issued in 2020 and 2021, these payments were a "contributing factor" to the size of the subsequent inflation boom, he said.
Professor Jonathan Parker suggested that a big spike in uncertainty will cause people to delay major spending such as upgrading to a new car. "Just the fact that all of this is happening generates a wave of uncertainty," Parker said. "It's a significant drag on the economy, and it's not clear how big, but it certainly is a drag."
When you feel uncertain about the economy, "You might scale back and go to less nice restaurants. You might cook in a little more."