Will AI derail global climate goals?
MIT Sloan School of Management researchers find that AI’s biggest climate threat isn’t the power draw of data centers — it’s the economic growth AI unleashes.
Faculty
John D. Sterman is the Jay W. Forrester Professor of Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management and a Professor in the MIT Institute for Data, Systems, and Society. He is also the Director of the MIT System Dynamics Group and the MIT Sloan Sustainability Initiative.
Sterman’s research centers on improving decision-making in complex systems, including corporate strategy and operations, energy policy, public health, environmental sustainability, and climate change. His work ranges from the dynamics of organizational change and the implementation of sustainable improvement programs to climate change and the implementation of policies to promote a sustainable world. Sterman pioneered the development of “management flight simulators” of corporate and economic systems which are now used by corporations, universities, and governments around the world.
He is the author of many scholarly and popular articles on the challenges and opportunities facing organizations today, including the book, Modeling for Organizational Learning, and the award-winning textbook, Business Dynamics.
Sterman is a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and received an honorary doctorate from the Università della Svizzera italiana, Switzerland. He has twice been awarded the Jay W. Forrester Prize for the best published work in system dynamics; has won an IBM Faculty Award as well as the Accenture Award for the best paper of the year published in the California Management Review. He received the Best Application Award from the System Dynamics Society for his work on climate change policy. At MIT, he has been recognized with the Samuel E. Seegal Faculty Prize, given to a professor who “inspires students in pursuing and achieving excellence,” the Jamieson Award for Excellence in Teaching, numerous other awards for teaching excellence; and was named one of MIT Sloan’s “Outstanding Faculty” by the BusinessWeek Guide to the Best Business Schools. His research has been featured in media around the world including the New York Times, Washington Post, Boston Globe ,Public Television’sNews Hour, National Public Radio’s Marketplace, WGBH, and other media for his innovative use of interactive simulations in management education and policymaking, particularly in climate change and energy policy.
Sterman holds an AB in engineering and environmental systems from Dartmouth College and a PhD in system dynamics from MIT.
Featured Publication
"Accelerating Vehicle Fleet Turnover to Achieve Sustainable Mobility Goals."Naumov, Sergey, David R. Keith, and John D. Sterman. Journal of Operations Management Vol. 69, No. 1 (2023): 36-66. Download Paper.
Turliuk, Jennifer and John D. Sterman. In Sustainable Climate Resilience: Incremental Pathways for Cities and Communities, edited by M. Agrawal, Springer Nature. Forthcoming. Preprint.
Kapmeier, Florian, Andrew P. Jones, and John D. Sterman. System Dynamics Review Vol. 42, No. 2 (2026): e70024.
Reinhart, Christoph, David Hsu, Caitlin Mueller, Les Norford, John D. Sterman and Jessika Trancik. MIT Faculty Newsletter, December 2025.
Synergy Forum (including John D. Sterman). Learning Health Systems Vol. 9, No. 4 (2025): e70020.
Rooney-Varga, Juliette N., Rachel L. Coleman, Andrew P. Jones, Florian Kapmeier, Peyton Newsome, Krystal Noiseux, Bethany Patten, Kenneth Rath, and John D. Sterman. Communications Earth & Environment Vol. 6, No. 769 (2025).
MIT Sloan School of Management researchers find that AI’s biggest climate threat isn’t the power draw of data centers — it’s the economic growth AI unleashes.
The rising energy demands of AI and data centers threaten corporate net zero commitments and worsen climate change. But can AI also help develop climate solutions? MIT Sloan researchers investigate.
"If there are millions of barrels a day of new oil, that will add quite a lot of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, and the people of Earth can't afford that," said professor John Sterman. He warned that increased drilling would lower global oil prices and slow the shift to renewables, worsening climate change.
To better understand the challenge of complex systems, it is worth turning to a field that has been dealing with this challenge for decades: System Dynamics, developed at MIT and formalized in the work of professor John Sterman, author of "Business Dynamics." The System Dynamics vision formalizes what was already a reality: marketing is not a sequence of steps, but a feedback system. Everything influences everything else. As Sterman summarized, "cause and effect are distant in time and space."
During a Climate Interactive webinar, the En-ROADS Climate Simulator was used to walk the audience through the implications of a warming planet. Professor John Sterman later noted that corporate adaptation and mitigation are not rivals for the same budget. As the scientific consensus now states plainly: we cannot adapt our way out of an unmitigated world. Adaptation without mitigation is not a strategy. It is a holding pattern with a rapidly approaching ceiling.
Environmentally conscious homeowners can retrofit existing homes. Professor John Sterman took that approach when he did a deep energy retrofit on his 1920s Lexington home. He replaced all the windows and installed a heat pump and solar panels, among other renovations, to turn his home into a personal "power plant." While he wasn't about to rip down his historic home, Sterman added that in many cases "you're better off doing a tear down and a rebuild," when appropriate.
For many companies, the topic of sustainability is at the forefront of business agendas. Consumers and stakeholders are demanding greater accountability from organizations, and the regulatory environment is becoming increasingly stringent. However, pursuing the environmental, social, and governance impacts of business is often met with tension. Leaders now need to manage the misconception within business that meeting sustainability goals means compromising profits.
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