The New Calculus of Prosperity: The Rise of Global Growth Markets as the New Engine of Progress

By Dina Sherif, Executive Director, MIT Kuo Sharper Center, Senior Lecturer, MIT Sloan School of Management

and Yasar Jarrar, Ph.D, Managing Partner, Gov Campus

For decades, the dominant models of economic development have been measured almost exclusively through GDP and other macroeconomic indicators. To their credit, these approaches have delivered: across global growth markets, we’ve seen rising growth rates, expanding infrastructure, and deeper integration into the global economy.

But this macroeconomic focus has left critical gaps. Human development indicators have lagged behind. Innovation capacity has not been fully nurtured. Private sectors in many countries remain small and underdeveloped. And crucially, equitable growth that benefits all — with sustainability and inclusion at the core — has rarely been prioritized.

This is why we need a new paradigm for prosperity. The new calculus cannot be defined only by the size of economies, but by the opportunities created for people, the resilience of systems, and the fairness of outcomes. It must be driven by entrepreneurs, anchored in innovation, and built on sustainability and inclusion as non-negotiables.

The markets once labeled “emerging” are not simply catching up to advanced economies — they are charting new pathways that can define the global future. They represent 85% of the world’s population and are now the primary engines of growth and creativity. What was once seen as “potential” is now undeniable progress.

Growth Markets Redefining the Mainstream

According to the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook, emerging markets and developing economies are projected to grow at 3.7% this year — nearly three times the pace of advanced economies, which are forecast to grow at 1.4%. Meanwhile, World Economics reports an even sharper contrast: 5.7% growth for emerging markets versus just 1.9% for developed ones.

This isn’t a short-term rebound. It is a structural, long-term shift — one that is already reshaping the global economy and will define it for the next century.

Few regions illustrate this better than West Asia, where two parallel powerhouses — the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and India — are rewriting the future.

The GCC countries — the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman — now control over $4.2 trillion in sovereign wealth assets (SWFI 2025), operate some of the world’s most advanced trade hubs, and are experiencing surging non-oil GDP growth at rates above 4% per year (World Bank 2025).

Meanwhile, India, now the world's most populous nation with 1.43 billion people (UN 2024), is projected to account for over 16% of global GDP growth between 2023 and 2028 (IMF 2024). India’s middle class, estimated at around 400 million today, is expected to double by 2030 according to Brookings (2023), driving demand, innovation, and investment at an unprecedented scale.

Africa’s Moment

And then there is Africa. By 2050, the continent will be home to 2.5 billion people, with over 60% under the age of 25 (UN Population Prospects 2024). This will be the largest concentration of young human capital in history.

Africa already boasts the highest entrepreneurship rates globally, with more than 1 in 5 working-age adults engaged in launching a business (GEM 2023). This youthful energy, combined with widespread mobile adoption and rapid urbanization, positions Africa not just as a market of tomorrow, but as a laboratory of innovation today.

Here, the case for a new paradigm is most urgent. Macroeconomic growth alone cannot guarantee prosperity. If human development continues to lag, if opportunities remain inequitable, if private sectors stay stunted, then Africa’s demographic dividend could easily turn into a liability. But if nurtured through entrepreneurial ecosystems, smart investment, and policies that put inclusion and sustainability at their core, Africa could become one of the most dynamic growth engines of the century.

Leapfrogging Toward a New Model

The most exciting part is that growth markets are not simply copying the models of advanced economies. They are leapfrogging outdated systems and pioneering new development pathways.

Kenya’s M-Pesa mobile money revolution didn’t just replicate banking — it invented a new financial paradigm that the West is still struggling to match. India’s telemedicine platforms are now influencing rural healthcare models even in developed nations. The UAE’s government services, ranked among the most digitalized globally, demonstrate how small states can become agile, tech-driven centers of excellence.

These are more than stories of growth. They are signals that prosperity can — and must — look different: inclusive and sustainable – driven by entrepreneurship and innovation. 

Toward a New Calculus

In this new calculus, human capital is the most precious resource, and digital infrastructure is the ultimate enabler. Those who invest in their people — young, entrepreneurial, adaptive — and in building robust, sustainable systems embracing technology like artificial intelligence in the right way, will define the next century.

For most of history, innovation flowed from the so-called “advanced economies” to the rest of the world. Today, innovation is starting to flow in all directions. What starts in Lagos, Jakarta, or Riyadh may soon become best practice in London, Tokyo, or New York.

This reversal is crucial. It means growth markets are not merely participating in globalization — they are a part of its leadership. From fintech to clean energy, from logistics to healthcare, new solutions are emerging from necessity, creativity, and resilience — and spreading globally.

The Choice Ahead

Of course, barriers persist. Venture capital still overwhelmingly flows to Silicon Valley, not Nairobi or Riyadh. Biases in perception, not in performance, continue to disadvantage startups from growth markets. Trade barriers, regulatory complexity, and fragmented markets remain obstacles.

But the old binary of “developed vs. developing” is dead. 

The new choice is clear: either cling to outdated models that privilege macroeconomic growth while leaving human development and equity behind or embrace a world where global growth markets lead the next wave of prosperity — prosperity that is entrepreneurial, sustainable, and inclusive.

The 21st century will not be defined by who dominated the 20th — it will be shaped by those who innovate, adapt, and build systems that allow people and planet to thrive.

From the corridors of Abu Dhabi to the campuses of Bangalore, from the ports of Dubai to the innovation hubs of Nairobi, the next generation of economic champions is already rising.

The real question is not if they will drive change — but if they will choose to partner in co-creating a more sustainable, inclusive form of prosperity driven by innovation driven entrepreneurs – thus establishing a new calculus for global prosperity. The time for a new paradigm is now.