Select Publications & Working Papers
"A Theory of Price Caps on Non-Renewable Resources."
Johnson, Simon, Lukasz Rachel, and Catherine Wolfram. American Economic Review. Forthcoming. NBER Preprint.
"Heaven or Earth? The Evolving Role of Global Shocks for Domestic Monetary Policy."
Forbes, Kristin J., Jongrim Ha, and M. Ayhan Kose. Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics. Forthcoming. NBER Working Paper #34806.
"Quantitative Tightening Around The Globe: What Have We Learned?"
Du, Wenxin, Kristin J. Forbes, and Matthew N. Luzzetti. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. Forthcoming. NBER Working Paper #32321.
"Unraveling the Cobweb of Global Imbalances: Drivers, Vulnerabilities, and Adjustment Scenarios."
Avdjiev, Stefan, Kristin J. Forbes, Tsvetelina Nenova, and Marjorie Santos, Working Paper. May 2026.
Keywords: Global Imbalances, Net International Investment Position, Spillovers, Current Account, Trade Deficit, Trade Surplus, Exorbitant Privilege, International Debt, Dollar Depreciation
The Art of Monetary Policy: Lessons from Sun Tzu for Central Banks.
Forbes, Kristin J. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2026.
The Economics of the Second Trump Administration: A Preliminary Assessment.
Gensler, Gary, Simon Johnson, Ugo Panizza, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro (Eds.). Washington, D.C.: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 2025. Second Edition - December 2025. First Edition - June 2025.
"Challenges for Monetary Policy and Its Communication."
Topic: Monetary Policy
Orphanides, Athanasios, Working Paper. August 2025.
Keywords: Policy Discretion, Simple Rules, Natural Growth Targeting, Inflation Surge
"Box Jumping: Portfolio Recompositions to Achieve Higher Morningstar Ratings."
Topic: Finance
Cohen, Lauren, David S. Kim, and Eric C. So, Working Paper. July 2025.
Keywords: Strategic Behavior, Mutual Fund Benchmarks, Performance Management, Investor Protection, Morningstar
"Improving the ECB's Policy Strategy."
Topic: Monetary Policy
Orphanides, Athanasios, Working Paper. June 2025. IMFS Working Paper 220.
Keywords: ECB, Policy Rules, Forward Guidance, Fiscal Stress, Collateral Framework
"Networks Rewired: Quota Enforcement and the Unintended Mobilization of Native Place Ties."
Zheng, Enying, Wei Hong, Yasheng Huang, and Rongzhu Ke. Social Forces Vol. 103, No. 4 (2025): 1465-1488.
"Nobel Lecture: The Institutional Origins of Shared Prosperity."
Johnson, Simon. American Economic Review Vol. 115, No. 6 (2025): 1749-1786.
"Tradeoffs over Rate Cycles: Activity, Inflation and the Price Level."
Topic: Monetary Policy
Forbes, Kristin J., Jongrim Ha, and M. Ayhan Kose, MIT Sloan Working Paper 7269-25. Cambridge, MA: MIT Sloan School of Management, May 2025.
Keywords: Monetary Policy, Interest Rates, Central Bank, Sacrifice Ratio, Business Fluctuations, Prices, Employment
"Enhancing Resilience with Natural Growth Targeting."
Orphanides, Athanasios. Southern Economic Journal Vol. 91, No. 4 (2025): 1420-1439.
"Perspectives on Monetary Policy and the Framework Review."
Evans, Charles, Brian Sack, and Kristin J. Forbes. Business Economics Vol. 60, No. 2 (2025): 65-76.
"Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions in a Low Interest Rate World."
Hofmann, Boris, Marco Jacopo Lombardi, Benoit Mojon, and Athanasios Orphanides. International Journal of Central Banking Vol. 21, No. 3 (2025): 69-110. BIS Working Paper No. 954.
"The Fiscal Frontier: Projecting AI’s Long-term Impact on the US Fiscal Outlook."
Topic: Artificial Intelligence
Harris, Ben, Neil R. Mehrotra, and Eric C. So, Working Paper. October 2024. Brookings Center on Regulation and Markets Working Paper.
"How to Improve Citizen Engagement on Public Service Platforms? The Impact of Government Responsiveness."
Topic: Operations Management
Qihua Gao, Yasheng Huang, El Ghali Zerhouni, and Y. Karen Zheng, MIT Sloan Working Paper 7044-23. Cambridge, MA: MIT Sloan School of Management, September 2024.
Keywords: Public Service Platforms, Government Responsiveness, Citizen Engagement, Causal Inference, Empirical Operations Management
"Learning From Ricardo and Thompson: Machinery and Labor in the Early Industrial Revolution and in the Age of Artificial Intelligence."
Acemoglu, Daron and Simon Johnson. Annual Review of Economics Vol. 16, No. 597-621 (2024).
"Odd Lots and Optics: Manipulation in Response to Scrutiny."
Charles Downing, Bradford (Lynch) Levy, Matthew A. Phillips, and Eric C. So, MIT Sloan Working Paper 7070-24. Cambridge, MA: MIT Sloan School of Management, July 2024.
Keywords: Trading Activity, Voluntary Disclosure, Retail Investors, Scrutiny, Manipulation, Intermediation
"Enhancing Resilience with Monetary Policy Rules."
Topic: Economics
Orphanides, Athanasios, Working Paper. May 2024. Hoover Institution Economics Working Paper 24109.
Keywords: Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy Strategy, Discretion, Simple Rules